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CompaniesARMArm HoldingsWatch

ARM earnings: an expected move of 10.2%, an actual move of 10.9%.Averages over its last twelve reports. Here are all 13 reports.

Every Arm Holdings earnings report since Nov 2023: the expected move the options priced the day before, how far the stock moved by the close and by 10:00 the next morning, and the IV crush afterwards, how far implied volatility fell. We read option prices from real quotes at 15:46 ET. Definitions on the methodology page.

Expected move10.2%the day before each of the last twelve reports
Actual move10.9%to the next close over the last twelve · 10.1% by 10:00
Past the price4of 12closes further than the options priced
On record13reportsevery report since Nov 2023
Median IV crush−34%over the last twelve reports · 15:46 ET
Next report—no date on the calendar yet

ARM · the Nov 4 ’26 report, split and ranked

The options price an earnings move as one number. We take out the drift the stock would have had anyway, then rank what is left, the report’s own part, against ARM’s earlier reports. Both were fixed at 15:46 ET the day before, and the history below does the same for every report.

1 · Split

9.9% quoted, 9.4% of it the report

quoted9.9%the report9.4%ordinary3.0%0%2%4%6%8%10%

The options ran two trading sessions, so the quote also carries two days of the drift ARM has anyway: 3.0%. The two combine as squares, not sums, so 9.4 and 3.0 give 9.9. The report is 91% of that expiry’s risk.

§3 Splitting the move

2 · Rank

Higher than five of its last twelve

cheaprichNov 4 ’26 · 9.4%lowest of the thirteenhighest

We rank only the report’s part, and only against ARM’s own earlier reports, so a jumpy stock does not read rich for being jumpy. 9.4% is the 42nd percentile: neither rich nor cheap for ARM.

§5 Richness

3 · What happened

Moved 13.1%, past the 9.4%

priced ±9.4%close −13.1% · 10:00 −10.8%−20%0+20%

−13.1% by the next close, −10.8% by 10:00 the next morning. The rank compares the price with ARM’s past and does not forecast the move.

§1 Timing and samples

ReportNov 4 ’26Compared withtwelve earlier reportsRank42nd percentile · neutralHow the rank works 

ARM · what the last twelve reports show

The charts read oldest to newest, left to right.priced moveclosed inside itclosed past itfall in implied volatility
Inside or past

Inside its priced move after eight of twelve

Feb ’24: priced 10.5%, moved +47.9%May ’24: priced 13.0%, moved −2.3%Jul ’24: priced 10.8%, moved −15.7%Nov ’24: priced 10.3%, moved +4.1%Feb ’25: priced 10.0%, moved −3.3%May ’25: priced 8.2%, moved −6.2%Jul ’25: priced 8.2%, moved −13.4%Nov ’25: priced 8.9%, moved −1.2%Feb ’26: priced 8.7%, moved +5.7%May ’26: priced 13.3%, moved −10.1%Jul ’26: priced 11.2%, moved +7.4%Nov ’26: priced 9.4%, moved −13.1%Feb ’24Nov ’26

Past it: Feb 2024 +47.9%, Jul 2024 −15.7%, Jul 2025 −13.4% and Nov 2026 −13.1%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

The biggest

+47.9% after the Feb 2024 report

priced10.5%moved, to the next close47.9%Feb ’24

The options had priced 10.5%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

Implied volatility

Fell after ten of the twelve, by 21% to 55%

May ’24: −55%Jul ’24: −23%Nov ’24: −45%Feb ’25: −46%May ’25: −34%Jul ’25: −40%Nov ’25: −33%Feb ’26: −25%May ’26: −40%Jul ’26: −21%median −34%Feb ’24Nov ’26

Median fall 34%, at the strike nearest the price, day before to day after. It rose after two.

Columns Crush · ATM in the table below

The priced move

Held steady: 10.6% over the last four

Feb ’24: priced 10.5%May ’24: priced 13.0%Jul ’24: priced 10.8%Nov ’24: priced 10.3%Feb ’25: priced 10.0%May ’25: priced 8.2%Jul ’25: priced 8.2%Nov ’25: priced 8.9%Feb ’26: priced 8.7%May ’26: priced 13.3%Jul ’26: priced 11.2%Nov ’26: priced 9.4%10.0%10.6%eight beforelast four

From 10.0% over the eight before. The report’s own part of the move, with the ordinary drift taken out.

Columns Priced in the table below

Reportsthe last twelve, settledWrittenfrom the numbers on this pageHow each one is measured 

ARM · earnings history: expected move vs actual move, all 13

CSV ↓
Columns shown on a phone
Every ARM earnings report: expected move, actual move and IV crush
Report Report’s partPricedRank RealizedC2C By 10:00 Priced · realized · ±25% CrushATM As-sold Open ForecastPred. Error
Nov 4 ’26AMC ±9.4% 42 −13.1% −10.8% 4% −5% −7% −30% +34pt
Jul 29 ’26AMC ±11.2% 82 +7.4% +6.6% −21% −19% −17% −29% +8pt
May 6 ’26AMC ±13.3% rich100 −10.1% −7.7% −40% −38% −35% −39% −1pt
Feb 4 ’26AMC ±8.7% 33 +5.7% +1.5% −25% −28% −16% −36% +11pt
Nov 5 ’25AMC ±8.9% 38 −1.2% +0.9% −33% −33% −30% −36% +3pt
Jul 30 ’25AMC ±8.2% — −13.4% −12.7% −40% −30% −31% −40% −1pt
May 7 ’25AMC ±8.2% — −6.2% −6.7% −34% −35% −25% −34% −1pt
Feb 5 ’25AMC ±10.0% — −3.3% −4.1% −46% −45% −36% −40% −5pt
Nov 6 ’24AMC ±10.3% — +4.1% +3.6% −45% −44% −37% −39% −6pt
Jul 31 ’24AMC ±10.8% — −15.7% −10.9% −23% −18% −28% −40% +17pt
May 8 ’24AMC ±13.0% — −2.3% −5.6% −55% −54% −49% −48% −7pt
Feb 7 ’24AMC ±10.5% — +47.9% +49.8% 20% — 58% −36% +56pt
Nov 8 ’23AMC ±6.1% — −5.2% −6.4% −38% −38% −25% −32% −6pt
All · 13 ±9.9% avg 5 ranked 10.4% avg abs 9.8% avg abs −34% median −34% median −28% median −36% median 12.0pt avg abs
What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns
Report’s part
The report’s share of what options priced at 15:46 ET the day before, taken from two or more expiries.
ColumnsPriced
Rank
Where the report’s part sits among ARM’s own earlier reports, up to twelve, from 0 to 100: 42 on Nov 4 ’26 means it was priced higher than 5 of the 12 before it. Rich and cheap mark the top and bottom of that range. It needs eight earlier reports with a 10:00 move, so the oldest rows have none.
ColumnsRank
Realized
C2C is the move to the next close; By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.
ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
Chart
The grey band is what the options priced, the dark mark where the stock closed, the bar where it stood at 10:00, on a ±25% scale.
ColumnsPriced · realized · ±25%
Crush
How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry, from 15:46 ET the day before to the day after: at the new strike ATM and at the old one As-sold. Open reads it from the option’s 10:00 quotes the next morning, and is blank where there was none.
ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
Forecast
Pred. is the crush we published the day before, graded on the public record. Error is what happened minus the forecast, in points of the crush.
ColumnsPred.Error
The stock closed past the priced move on 4 of 13 and was past it at 10:00 the next morning on 5 of 13. The 12 forecasts up to Jul 2026 were rebuilt from history rather than published the day before, and all are graded on the public record. A dash is a number we do not have, not a zero.
Reports13Open crush13 of 13Measured15:46 ET · day before → day afterEvery company’s full history is public 

how these numbers are measured

A day's price path that ends near where it started: a short graphite bracket for the move from close to close, beside a much taller oxblood one for how far it swung in betweento the closein between
Two ways to measure the move

Closing prices miss the open

If you hold through the report you meet the open, not the close. We publish both: the move from one close to the next, and where the stock stood at 10:00 the next morning.

ARM Jul 2024: −15.7% by the close, −10.9% at 10:00.

§1 Timing and samples

One beam enters a prism and two leave, one oxblood and one slatethe reportordinary
The report’s own share of it

Option prices cover more than the report

An expiry a week out also carries a week of ordinary movement. Comparing two expiries that both contain the report separates the two, and the report's share is the priced move.

ARM Nov 2026: 9.9% from the options → 9.4% for the report, 91% of that expiry's risk.

§3 Splitting the move

Five expiries on a line; an oxblood beam strikes only the first, while a faint bracket spans all fivethe one that movedwhat 30 days average
The collapse in volatility

We measure the expiry that moved

A 30-day average mixes the expiry holding the report with expiries it never reaches, so it reads shallower than what you held. We read the expiry that holds the report, the day before and the day after, at both strikes.

ARM Nov 2026: +4% new strike, −5% old strike, −7% at 10:00 the next morning.

§4 The collapse, three ways

ARM · IV crush at the report’s expiry vs the 30-day average

One expiry contains the report. The 30-day figure is an average that also covers expiries the report never reaches. Every column below leans the same way, so the gap shows on each report, not only in the median.

Collapse at the report’s expiry−34%median, whole column
Seen by the 30-day number−18%median, the part it sees
Missed by the 30-day number16pton 13 of 13 reports
Nov 4 ’26Jul 29 ’26May 6 ’26Feb 4 ’26Nov 5 ’25Jul 30 ’25May 7 ’25Feb 5 ’25Nov 6 ’24Jul 31 ’24May 8 ’24Feb 7 ’24Nov 8 ’23

ARM · the expected move, where it closed, where it stood at 10:00

Each row is one report: the band is what the options priced, the mark is where the stock closed, and the bar runs to where it stood at 10:00 the next morning. On 1 of 13 reports with both, the close and 10:00 pointed opposite ways.

Where the 10:00 number is missing, the cell stays blank instead of borrowing the close, and the data-quality grid below says why. How far apart the two run differs from company to company; this window measures it for ARM.

Median move to the next close6.2%past the price on 4 of 13
Median move by 10:00 the next morning6.6%past the price on 5 of 13
Nov 4 ’26−13.1−10.8
Jul 29 ’26+7.4+6.6
May 6 ’26−10.1−7.7
Feb 4 ’26+5.7+1.5
Nov 5 ’25−1.2+0.9
Jul 30 ’25−13.4−12.7
May 7 ’25−6.2−6.7
Feb 5 ’25−3.3−4.1
Nov 6 ’24+4.1+3.6
Jul 31 ’24−15.7−10.9
May 8 ’24−2.3−5.6
Feb 7 ’24+47.9+49.8
Nov 8 ’23−5.2−6.4
−25−12.50+12.5+25

ARM · the term structure the day before each report

The split reads the report out of the gap between the two lines. The small figure under each date is how many trading sessions the expiry holding the report had left. A shorter one carries the same report over fewer days, so it reads higher without the report being priced any bigger.

Drawn for the last twelve reports, like the other figures on this page. It is history; the current curve is on the board.

the expiry holding the reportthe next expirythe gap the split readsimplied vol, %

ARM · data quality, report by report

Counted over the 13 reports shown. Three markers are on every report (held to expiry, crush expiry substituted and macro event in the window), so they describe ARM rather than any one quarter. The other five are on between one and four reports.

Every marker on the reports above is counted here, one cell per report, newest first as in the history table.

Nov 4
’26Jul 29
’26May 6
’26Feb 4
’26Nov 5
’25Jul 30
’25May 7
’25Feb 5
’25Nov 6
’24Jul 31
’24May 8
’24Feb 7
’24Nov 8
’23reports
Shown, kept off the board’s sortPublished, but it does not rank this name on the board.
thin trade at the cover2 of 13
Shown as measuredNotes on how a number was measured. Each says what it touches.
held to expiry13 of 13
crush expiry substituted13 of 13
macro event in the window13 of 13
an anchor was refused4 of 13
gapped past the wings4 of 13
next-morning price from quotes1 of 13
path incomplete1 of 13
What each marker means8 markers

Shown, kept off the board’s sort

thin trade at the cover2 of 13open_crush_thin_trade
Too few prints stand behind the 10:00 anchor for it to be a reliable price. The crush is shown and kept out of the rankings.
Lands inOpen

Shown as measured

held to expiryevery reportcover_mark_settled
The straddle that was sold expired at one of these closes, so its price there is its settlement value: the distance from the stock to the strike. That exit pays no bid/ask spread, and it ignores the cost of being assigned stock on the in-the-money leg.
Lands inShort-straddle P&Lon the ticker page, not this one
crush expiry substitutedevery reportcrush_expiry_substituted
The expiry that would have been measured was not available on both sides of the print, so a neighbouring one stood in. The crush is real; it is measured on a slightly different contract than the label implies.
Lands inATM
macro event in the windowevery reportdecomp_macro_window
A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.
Lands inPriced move
an anchor was refused4 of 13open_crush_anchor_unreliable
At least one observation behind the 10:00 crush was rejected: a price below intrinsic, a crossed quote, or a solve that did not converge. The number here was measured from the anchors that did invert, and is scored normally.
Lands inOpen
gapped past the wings4 of 13open_crush_gap_otm
The stock gapped far enough that the contract sold at T−1 is no longer near the money at the cover, so the as-sold crush there is partly a move along the smile rather than a collapse in volatility.
Lands inOpen
next-morning price from quotes1 of 13open_crush_restruck_quoted
The option at the 10:00 strike did not trade on both sides between 09:55 and 10:05, so the next-morning volatility was read from the midpoint of its quoted bid and ask over the same ten minutes. Used only when both sides were quoted and the quote was less than 50% wide.
Lands inOpen
path incomplete1 of 13path_incomplete
The T+2 or T+3 leg of the post-print path is missing, so the multi-day drift columns stop short of where a held position would.
Lands inT+2T+3on the ticker page, not this one

ARM · companies whose reports traded alike

Each company’s last twelve reports.average priced movemoved less than pricedmoved moremedian fall in implied volatilityARM’s values

Six companies whose reports traded like ARM’s

The closest on all three numbers at the top of each company page. It compares how the reports traded, not the businesses.

8%10%10%12%12%AAPAEOAFRMAKAMAMBAAMKRANFAPPNARDXATIAURAVAVBBBBWIBILLBOOTBURLCALYCARCAVACECELHCHTRCHWYCIENCIFRCLFCLSCLSKCNXCCOHRCOINCRCLCRLCROXCWHCXMDDOGDECKDELLDLTRDOCUDVADXCMELELFENPHERICETSYEXPEFLRFNFOURFTAIFTNTFVRRGAPGHGIIIGLBEGLOBGLXYGMEGOOSGTGWREHELEHOODHUBSHUTINTCIONQIRENITJBLUKSSLEULINCLITELNTHLRNLSCCLULULWLZBMLKNMRVLMUNBISNETNICENKENOWNTNXNTRANXTOKLOONONORCLOSCRPAYCPDPDDPGNYPINSPLNTPODDPRGSPVHQUBTRBLXRDWRHRIVNRKLBRMBSRNGROKURPDRUMRVLVSSESFMSHAKSHOPSIGSMRSNDKSOFISPOTSPTSTNESTRATALTDOCTERTEVATGTTHCTITNTMETOSTTRIPTSEMTWLOUAAULTAUNFIURBNUSARUTIVFCVGVKTXVRTVSXYWWCCWRBYWULFWWWXYZYOUZZBRAZGZSZUMZEPAMWIXARMWINGMEDFRPTCCaverage priced move →average move made →all 728
Where they sit. A close-up of ARM’s part of the field; the small map in its corner shows where that sits among all 728 companies with a page and all three numbers. Grey dots are other companies here. Below the dashed line, a stock moved less than its options priced.
Figureseach company’s last twelve reportsCompared onpriced, moved, crush

the board · the last fortnight, then the next 14 days

PricedRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
  1. Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
  2. 1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
  3. 2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
  4. 3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
  5. 4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
  6. 5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
  7. Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
  8. ·AAONMon 9AMC—
  9. ·ABCLMon 9AMC—
  10. ·ACHRMon 9AMC—
  11. ·AIOTMon 9BMO—
  12. 11 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

    The ranked columns are the board

    Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
    Open the board

    A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

    Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

  13. ·ALTGMon 9AMC—
  14. ·AMCXMon 9AMC—
  15. ·AMGMon 9BMO—
  16. ·AMPYMon 9AMC—
  17. ·AMRCMon 9AMC—
  18. ·ANNXMon 9BMO—
  19. ·APEIMon 9AMC—
The board: the last fortnight’s settled reports, then the next 14 days
#NameReportPriced moveRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·AAONMon 9AMC—
·ABCLMon 9AMC—
·ACHRMon 9AMC—
·AIOTMon 9BMO—
12 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

The ranked columns are the board

Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
Open the board

A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

·ALTGMon 9AMC—
·AMCXMon 9AMC—
·AMGMon 9BMO—
·AMPYMon 9AMC—
·AMRCMon 9AMC—
·ANNXMon 9BMO—
·APEIMon 9AMC—
·APPSMon 9AMC—
on the board — not known yet Ranked by richness against each name's own last twelve reports. Ratio is the priced move over that name’s typical actual move; inside: the stock stayed within the priced move.

How to read this page

History table
Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
Coverage
ARM’s 13 reports. The board rows are the fortnight’s five richest settled reports, then the first of the next 523 names.
Ratio
The priced move over the name’s typical actual move.
Markers
Notes on a report’s data, counted in the data-quality grid with what each one touches.

A number looks wrong? Tell us what you expected and we’ll check it.Report a data issue

History is a record, not a forecast. Derived values only; no option prices are shown. Nothing here is investment advice.