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CompaniesAYIAcuityWatch

AYI earnings: an expected move of 7.1%, an actual move of 6.8%.Averages over its last twelve reports. Here are all 15 reports.

Every Acuity earnings report since Apr 2023: the expected move the options priced the day before, how far the stock moved by the close and by 10:00 the next morning, and the IV crush afterwards, how far implied volatility fell. We read option prices from real quotes at 15:46 ET. Definitions on the methodology page.

Expected move7.1%the day before each of the last twelve reports
Actual move6.8%to the next close over the last twelve · 5.8% by 10:00
Past the price3of 12closes further than the options priced
On record15reportsevery report since Apr 2023
Median IV crush−39%over the last twelve reports · 15:46 ET
Next report—no date on the calendar yet

AYI · the Oct 1 ’26 report, split and ranked

The options price an earnings move as one number. We take out the drift the stock would have had anyway, then rank what is left, the report’s own part, against AYI’s earlier reports. Both were fixed at 15:46 ET the day before, and the history below does the same for every report.

1 · Split

8.4% quoted, 6.5% of it the report

quoted8.4%the report6.5%ordinary5.3%0%2%4%6%8%

The options ran twelve trading sessions, so the quote also carries twelve days of the drift AYI has anyway: 5.3%. The two combine as squares, not sums, so 6.5 and 5.3 give 8.4. The report is 60% of that expiry’s risk.

§3 Splitting the move

2 · Rank

Higher than four of its last twelve

cheaprichOct 1 ’26 · 6.5%error bar 2.0–9.0%lowest of the thirteenhighest

We rank only the report’s part, and only against AYI’s own earlier reports, so a jumpy stock does not read rich for being jumpy. 6.5% is the 33rd percentile: neither rich nor cheap for AYI. Read it as roughly there: its part has a wide error bar, 2.0% to 9.0%, which takes in every one of the twelve, so the board does not sort on it.

§5 Richness

3 · What happened

Moved 3.4%, inside the 6.5%

priced ±6.5%close −3.4% · 10:00 −4.7%−10%0+10%

−3.4% by the next close, −4.7% by 10:00 the next morning. The rank compares the price with AYI’s past and does not forecast the move.

§1 Timing and samples

ReportOct 1 ’26Compared withtwelve earlier reportsRank33rd percentile · neutral≈How the rank works 

AYI · what the last twelve reports show

The charts read oldest to newest, left to right.priced moveclosed inside itclosed past itfall in implied volatility
Inside or past

Inside its priced move after nine of twelve

Jan ’24: priced 6.1%, moved +11.5%Apr ’24: priced 6.7%, moved +1.1%Jun ’24: priced 6.0%, moved +1.1%Oct ’24: priced 8.8%, moved +8.7%Jan ’25: priced 7.2%, moved +3.2%Apr ’25: priced 7.2%, moved −3.4%Jun ’25: priced 6.5%, moved +5.8%Oct ’25: priced 6.6%, moved +5.4%Jan ’26: priced 6.9%, moved −12.9%Apr ’26: priced 7.7%, moved −7.5%Jun ’26: priced 9.0%, moved +17.6%Oct ’26: priced 6.5%, moved −3.4%Jan ’24Oct ’26

Past it: Jan 2024 +11.5%, Jan 2026 −12.9% and Jun 2026 +17.6%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

The biggest

+17.6% after the Jun 2026 report

priced9.0%moved, to the next close17.6%Jun ’26

The options had priced 9.0%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

Implied volatility

Fell after every one, by 14% to 56%

Jan ’24: −56%Apr ’24: −49%Jun ’24: −40%Oct ’24: −49%Jan ’25: −52%Apr ’25: −14%Jun ’25: −38%Oct ’25: −37%Jan ’26: −46%Apr ’26: −38%Jun ’26: −37%Oct ’26: −37%median −39%Jan ’24Oct ’26

Median fall 39%, at the strike nearest the price, day before to day after.

Columns Crush · ATM in the table below

The priced move

Held steady: 7.5% over the last four

Jan ’24: priced 6.1%Apr ’24: priced 6.7%Jun ’24: priced 6.0%Oct ’24: priced 8.8%Jan ’25: priced 7.2%Apr ’25: priced 7.2%Jun ’25: priced 6.5%Oct ’25: priced 6.6%Jan ’26: priced 6.9%Apr ’26: priced 7.7%Jun ’26: priced 9.0%Oct ’26: priced 6.5%6.9%7.5%eight beforelast four

From 6.9% over the eight before. The report’s own part of the move, with the ordinary drift taken out.

Columns Priced in the table below

Reportsthe last twelve, settledWrittenfrom the numbers on this pageHow each one is measured 

AYI · earnings history: expected move vs actual move, all 15

CSV ↓
Columns shown on a phone
Every AYI earnings report: expected move, actual move and IV crush
Report Report’s partPricedRank RealizedC2C By 10:00 Priced · realized · ±20% CrushATM As-sold Open ForecastPred. Error
Oct 1 ’26BMO ±6.5% ≈33 −3.4% −4.7% −37% −44% −35% — —
Jun 25 ’26BMO ±9.0% rich≈100 +17.6% +18.5% −37% −15% −33% — —
Apr 2 ’26BMO ±7.7% rich≈92 −7.5% −3.4% −38% −36% −29% — —
Jan 8 ’26BMO ±6.9% 64 −12.9% −12.4% −46% −7% −35% −54% +8pt
Oct 1 ’25BMO ±6.6% ≈50 +5.4% +4.6% −37% −33% −17% — —
Jun 26 ’25BMO ±6.5% ≈33 +5.8% +4.0% −38% −40% −30% — —
Apr 3 ’25BMO ±7.2% 75 −3.4% −5.1% −14% −19% −5% −41% +27pt
Jan 8 ’25BMO ±7.2% — +3.2% −0.4% −52% −47% −35% −53% +1pt
Oct 1 ’24BMO ±8.8% — +8.7% +5.7% −49% −33% −44% −53% +3pt
Jun 27 ’24BMO ±6.0% — +1.1% +0.3% −40% −40% −26% −31% −9pt
Apr 3 ’24BMO ±6.7% — +1.1% +2.3% −49% −47% −42% −41% −8pt
Jan 9 ’24BMO ±6.1% — +11.5% +8.2% −56% −26% −43% −48% −9pt
Oct 4 ’23BMO ±6.5% — +6.9% +6.6% −42% −38% −33% −37% −5pt
Jun 29 ’23BMO ±7.2% — +1.1% +0.3% −38% −38% −25% — —
Apr 4 ’23BMO ±6.3% — −11.0% −8.0% −30% −18% −16% — —
All · 15 ±7.0% avg 7 ranked 6.7% avg abs 5.6% avg abs −38% median −36% median −33% median −45% median 8.8pt avg abs
What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns
Report’s part
The report’s share of what options priced at 15:46 ET the day before, taken from two or more expiries.
ColumnsPriced
Rank
Where the report’s part sits among AYI’s own earlier reports, up to twelve, from 0 to 100: 33 on Oct 1 ’26 means it was priced higher than 4 of the 12 before it. Rich and cheap mark the top and bottom of that range. It needs eight earlier reports with a 10:00 move, so the oldest rows have none. ≈ marks a rank whose report’s part was uncertain: read it as roughly there, not exactly.
ColumnsRank
Realized
C2C is the move to the next close; By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.
ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
Chart
The grey band is what the options priced, the dark mark where the stock closed, the bar where it stood at 10:00, on a ±20% scale.
ColumnsPriced · realized · ±20%
Crush
How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry, from 15:46 ET the day before to the day after: at the new strike ATM and at the old one As-sold. Open reads it from the option’s 10:00 quotes the next morning, and is blank where there was none.
ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
Forecast
Pred. is the crush we published the day before. AYI is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. Error is what happened minus the forecast, in points of the crush.
ColumnsPred.Error
The stock closed past the priced move on 5 of 15 and was past it at 10:00 the next morning on 5 of 15. All 8 forecasts were rebuilt from history rather than published the day before, and all are graded here. AYI is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. A dash is a number we do not have, not a zero. ≈ in Rank marks a report whose part was uncertain: ranked here against the company’s own past, but the board does not sort on it.
Reports15Open crush15 of 15Measured15:46 ET · day before → day afterEvery company’s full history is public 

how these numbers are measured

A day's price path that ends near where it started: a short graphite bracket for the move from close to close, beside a much taller oxblood one for how far it swung in betweento the closein between
Two ways to measure the move

Closing prices miss the open

If you hold through the report you meet the open, not the close. We publish both: the move from one close to the next, and where the stock stood at 10:00 the next morning.

AYI Apr 2026: −7.5% by the close, −3.4% at 10:00.

§1 Timing and samples

One beam enters a prism and two leave, one oxblood and one slatethe reportordinary
The report’s own share of it

Option prices cover more than the report

An expiry a week out also carries a week of ordinary movement. Comparing two expiries that both contain the report separates the two, and the report's share is the priced move.

AYI Oct 2026: 8.4% from the options → 6.5% for the report, 60% of that expiry's risk.

§3 Splitting the move

Five expiries on a line; an oxblood beam strikes only the first, while a faint bracket spans all fivethe one that movedwhat 30 days average
The collapse in volatility

We measure the expiry that moved

A 30-day average mixes the expiry holding the report with expiries it never reaches, so it reads shallower than what you held. We read the expiry that holds the report, the day before and the day after, at both strikes.

AYI Oct 2026: −37% new strike, −44% old strike, −35% at 10:00 the next morning.

§4 The collapse, three ways

AYI · IV crush at the report’s expiry vs the 30-day average

One expiry contains the report. The 30-day figure is an average that also covers expiries the report never reaches. Every column below leans the same way, so the gap shows on each report, not only in the median.

Collapse at the report’s expiry−38%median, whole column
Seen by the 30-day number−33%median, the part it sees
Missed by the 30-day number5pton 15 of 15 reports
Oct 1 ’26Jun 25 ’26Apr 2 ’26Jan 8 ’26Oct 1 ’25Jun 26 ’25Apr 3 ’25Jan 8 ’25Oct 1 ’24Jun 27 ’24Apr 3 ’24Jan 9 ’24Oct 4 ’23Jun 29 ’23Apr 4 ’23

AYI · the expected move, where it closed, where it stood at 10:00

Each row is one report: the band is what the options priced, the mark is where the stock closed, and the bar runs to where it stood at 10:00 the next morning. On 1 of 15 reports with both, the close and 10:00 pointed opposite ways.

Where the 10:00 number is missing, the cell stays blank instead of borrowing the close, and the data-quality grid below says why. How far apart the two run differs from company to company; this window measures it for AYI.

Median move to the next close5.8%past the price on 5 of 15
Median move by 10:00 the next morning4.7%past the price on 5 of 15
Oct 1 ’26−3.4−4.7
Jun 25 ’26+17.6+18.5
Apr 2 ’26−7.5−3.4
Jan 8 ’26−12.9−12.4
Oct 1 ’25+5.4+4.6
Jun 26 ’25+5.8+4.0
Apr 3 ’25−3.4−5.1
Jan 8 ’25+3.2−0.4
Oct 1 ’24+8.7+5.7
Jun 27 ’24+1.1+0.3
Apr 3 ’24+1.1+2.3
Jan 9 ’24+11.5+8.2
Oct 4 ’23+6.9+6.6
Jun 29 ’23+1.1+0.3
Apr 4 ’23−11.0−8.0
−20−100+10+20

AYI · the term structure the day before each report

The split reads the report out of the gap between the two lines. The small figure under each date is how many trading sessions the expiry holding the report had left. A shorter one carries the same report over fewer days, so it reads higher without the report being priced any bigger.

Drawn for the last twelve reports, like the other figures on this page. It is history; the current curve is on the board.

the expiry holding the reportthe next expirythe gap the split readsimplied vol, %

AYI · data quality, report by report

Counted over the 15 reports shown. One marker is on every report (macro event in the window), so it describes AYI rather than any one quarter. The other five are on between one and twelve reports.

Every marker on the reports above is counted here, one cell per report, newest first as in the history table.

Oct 1
’26Jun 25
’26Apr 2
’26Jan 8
’26Oct 1
’25Jun 26
’25Apr 3
’25Jan 8
’25Oct 1
’24Jun 27
’24Apr 3
’24Jan 9
’24Oct 4
’23Jun 29
’23Apr 4
’23reports
WithheldThe cell is blank on the marked reports.
no prediction7 of 15
Shown, kept off the board’s sortPublished, but it does not rank this name on the board.
wide decomposition band7 of 15
Shown as measuredNotes on how a number was measured. Each says what it touches.
macro event in the window15 of 15
next-morning price from quotes12 of 15
noisy IV rank2 of 15
an anchor was refused1 of 15
What each marker means6 markers · 1 withholds a number

Withheld

no prediction7 of 15crush_pred_unavailable
No predicted crush could be frozen for this print, so it has no entry in the scored accuracy record. Never filled in afterwards — a prediction written after the outcome is not one.
Lands inPred.Error

Shown, kept off the board’s sort

wide decomposition band7 of 15decomp_low_confidence
The decomposed implied move has a wide confidence band on this row. The number is published and kept off the board’s sort, because a sort cannot express an error bar; where its rank is shown, it is marked ≈.
Lands inPriced move

Shown as measured

macro event in the windowevery reportdecomp_macro_window
A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.
Lands inPriced move
next-morning price from quotes12 of 15open_crush_restruck_quoted
The option at the 10:00 strike did not trade on both sides between 09:55 and 10:05, so the next-morning volatility was read from the midpoint of its quoted bid and ask over the same ten minutes. Used only when both sides were quoted and the quote was less than 50% wide.
Lands inOpen
noisy IV rank2 of 15iv_rank_noisy
This name’s quote width is large against its own 52-week volatility range, so the rank carries a read error worth noting. A true property of a quiet name, not a defect — the rank itself is computed normally.
Lands inIV rankon the ticker page, not this one
an anchor was refused1 of 15open_crush_anchor_unreliable
At least one observation behind the 10:00 crush was rejected: a price below intrinsic, a crossed quote, or a solve that did not converge. The number here was measured from the anchors that did invert, and is scored normally.
Lands inOpen

AYI · companies whose reports traded alike

Each company’s last twelve reports.average priced movemoved less than pricedmoved moremedian fall in implied volatilityAYI’s values

Six companies whose reports traded like AYI’s

The closest on all three numbers at the top of each company page. It compares how the reports traded, not the businesses.

5%6%6%7%7%8%8%AALABMABNBABRACNADBEAGAMATAMDAMZNASMLASOATIAVGOBABABAXBBYBCOBIRKBJBLDRBTUBURLCARRCASYCBRLCCLCDNSCEGCLHCMGCNCCOINCOOCPACPNGCRLCRMCRUSCRWDCSCOCSGPCSIQCVSDALDASHDBXDGDHRDISDKSEBAYEFXERICEWFFDXFFIVFLUTFSLRFTAIGDDYGEHCGENGFSGLWGMGNRCGOOGGOOGLHASHOGHRLHUMHWMIBMIFFILMNINTUIPIRMISRGJBHTJBLJCIJOBYKEYSLILLYLOGILOPELRCXLUVLVSMARAMCHPMELIMETAMGAMGMMHKMMMMNSTMOSMPMPTMPWRMRNAMSTRMTCHNEMNFLXNKENRGNTAPNTESNUNVDANXPINYTOLEDPANWPDDPENPENNPHGPPLIPWRPYPLQCOMQRVORACERCLRIOTRMDSAPSGISIRISKYDSMGSNPSSPBSTSTNESTXSWKSTCOMTEVATGTTHCTHOTPRTREXTRMBTSLATTWOTXNUBERULTAUPSURIVEEVVSTWDAYWDCWDFCWHRWSMXPEVXPOYELPZMZTSROKHRBAYIWBDRLFISTTCaverage priced move →average move made →all 728
Where they sit. A close-up of AYI’s part of the field; the small map in its corner shows where that sits among all 728 companies with a page and all three numbers. Grey dots are other companies here. Below the dashed line, a stock moved less than its options priced.
Figureseach company’s last twelve reportsCompared onpriced, moved, crush

the board · the last fortnight, then the next 14 days

PricedRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
  1. Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
  2. 1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
  3. 2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
  4. 3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
  5. 4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
  6. 5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
  7. Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
  8. ·AAONMon 9AMC—
  9. ·ABCLMon 9AMC—
  10. ·ACHRMon 9AMC—
  11. ·AIOTMon 9BMO—
  12. 11 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

    The ranked columns are the board

    Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
    Open the board

    A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

    Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

  13. ·ALTGMon 9AMC—
  14. ·AMCXMon 9AMC—
  15. ·AMGMon 9BMO—
  16. ·AMPYMon 9AMC—
  17. ·AMRCMon 9AMC—
  18. ·ANNXMon 9BMO—
  19. ·APEIMon 9AMC—
The board: the last fortnight’s settled reports, then the next 14 days
#NameReportPriced moveRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·AAONMon 9AMC—
·ABCLMon 9AMC—
·ACHRMon 9AMC—
·AIOTMon 9BMO—
12 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

The ranked columns are the board

Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
Open the board

A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

·ALTGMon 9AMC—
·AMCXMon 9AMC—
·AMGMon 9BMO—
·AMPYMon 9AMC—
·AMRCMon 9AMC—
·ANNXMon 9BMO—
·APEIMon 9AMC—
·APPSMon 9AMC—
on the board — not known yet Ranked by richness against each name's own last twelve reports. Ratio is the priced move over that name’s typical actual move; inside: the stock stayed within the priced move.

How to read this page

History table
Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
Coverage
AYI’s 15 reports. The board rows are the fortnight’s five richest settled reports, then the first of the next 523 names.
Ratio
The priced move over the name’s typical actual move.
Markers
Notes on a report’s data, counted in the data-quality grid with what each one touches.

A number looks wrong? Tell us what you expected and we’ll check it.Report a data issue

History is a record, not a forecast. Derived values only; no option prices are shown. Nothing here is investment advice.