What is BABA's expected move for earnings?

The expected move is what the at-the-money options in the expiry containing the report imply the stock will move. This page publishes the move implied before each of BABA's past reports and the move that actually followed. The figure for an upcoming report is on the forward board.

How is front-month IV crush different from IV30 crush?

Front-month crush measures the at-the-money implied volatility of the expiry that actually contains the earnings report, from the afternoon before to the session after. A 30-day constant-maturity measure blends that expiry with expiries that hold no event, so it consistently reports a shallower collapse.

Why measure the earnings move at 10:00 instead of the close?

Close-to-close prices an exit at 16:00 the day after the report. A position is usually closed near the open, so this page shows two realized moves for each report: C2C, the move to the next close, and By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.

CompaniesBABAAlibaba Group HoldingWatch

BABA earnings: an expected move of 5.5%, an actual move of 6.5%.Averages over eleven of its last twelve reports. Here are all 16 reports.

Every Alibaba Group Holding earnings report since Nov 2022: the expected move the options priced the day before, how far the stock moved by the close and by 10:00 the next morning, and the IV crush afterwards, how far implied volatility fell. We read option prices from real quotes at 15:46 ET. Definitions on the methodology page.

Next reportTue 24Nov · AMC16 days out

Expected move5.5%the day before, over eleven of the last twelve reports

Actual move6.5%to the next close over eleven of the last twelve · 6.2% by 10:00

Past the price6of 11closes further than the options priced

On record16reportsevery report since Nov 2022

Median IV crush−31%over the last twelve reports · 15:46 ET

Next report · after the close · 16 days out

BABA’s expected move for Tue 24 Nov

Priced now%

The options already price it. The number, and how rich it is against BABA’s own history, opens free on report day, Tue 24 Nov, with an account. Subscribers read it now.

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BABA · the Aug 20 ’26 report, split and ranked

The options price an earnings move as one number. We take out the drift the stock would have had anyway, then rank what is left, the report’s own part, against BABA’s earlier reports. Both were fixed at 15:46 ET the day before, and the history below does the same for every report.

1 · Split

The whole 2.7% is the report

The options expired the session after the report, so the quote has no ordinary days in it and there is nothing to take out. Our estimate of the report’s part, read from eight expiries, agrees within its range: 2.6%, between 2.5 and 2.8. On a longer expiry this step splits the quote in two.

§3 Splitting the move

2 · Rank

Lower than all of its last twelve

We rank only the report’s part, and only against BABA’s own earlier reports, so a jumpy stock does not read rich for being jumpy. 2.6% is the 0th percentile: cheap for BABA.

§5 Richness

3 · What happened

Moved 8.6%, past the 2.6%

−8.6% by the next close, −6.7% by 10:00 the next morning. The rank compares the price with BABA’s past and does not forecast the move.

§1 Timing and samples

ReportAug 20 ’26Compared withtwelve earlier reportsRank0th percentile · cheapHow the rank works

BABA · what eleven of the last twelve reports show

The charts read oldest to newest, left to right.priced moveclosed inside itclosed past itfall in implied volatility

Inside or past

Inside its priced move after five of eleven

Past it: Nov 2023 −9.1%, Feb 2025 +8.1%, May 2025 −7.6%, Aug 2025 +12.9%, May 2026 +8.2% and Aug 2026 −8.6%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

The biggest

+12.9% after the Aug 2025 report

The options had priced 5.9%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

Implied volatility

Fell after every one, by 1% to 39%

Median fall 31%, at the strike nearest the price, day before to day after.

Columns Crush · ATM in the table below

The priced move

Held steady: 5.1% over the last four

From 5.8% over the seven before. The report’s own part of the move, with the ordinary drift taken out.

Columns Priced in the table below

Reportseleven of the last twelve, settledWrittenfrom the numbers on this pageHow each one is measured

BABA · earnings history: expected move vs actual move, all 16

CSV ↓

Every BABA earnings report: expected move, actual move and IV crush
Report	Report’s partPriced	Rank	RealizedC2C	By 10:00	CrushATM	As-sold	Open	ForecastPred.	Error
Aug 20 ’26BMO	±2.6%	cheap0	−8.6%	−6.7%	−2%	12%	−1%	−9%	+7pt
May 13 ’26BMO	±5.5%	18	+8.2%	+5.9%	−1%	−8%	3%	−26%	+24pt
Mar 19 ’26BMO	—	—	−7.1%	−7.4%	−33%	−29%	−25%	—	—
Nov 25 ’25BMO	±6.2%	80	−2.3%	−1.3%	−29%	−28%	−21%	−32%	+2pt
Aug 29 ’25BMO	±5.9%	56	+12.9%	+9.8%	−31%	−26%	−34%	−42%	+11pt
May 15 ’25BMO	±5.5%	25	−7.6%	−7.3%	−30%	−22%	−26%	−28%	−2pt
Feb 20 ’25BMO	±6.4%	—	+8.1%	+12.2%	−14%	−13%	−11%	−34%	+20pt
Nov 15 ’24BMO	±5.6%	—	−2.2%	−2.7%	−36%	−31%	−37%	−42%	+7pt
Aug 15 ’24BMO	±5.2%	—	+0.1%	+2.7%	−32%	−32%	−33%	−41%	+9pt
May 14 ’24BMO	±6.1%	—	−6.0%	−6.3%	−39%	−29%	−34%	−34%	−5pt
Feb 7 ’24BMO	±6.8%	—	−5.9%	−5.3%	−36%	−32%	−34%	−37%	+2pt
Nov 16 ’23BMO	±4.8%	—	−9.1%	−7.8%	−31%	−12%	−29%	−36%	+5pt
Aug 10 ’23BMO	±6.1%	—	+4.6%	+7.0%	−34%	−36%	−31%	−33%	−1pt
May 18 ’23BMO	±5.6%	—	−5.4%	−4.3%	−26%	−19%	−23%	−31%	+5pt
Feb 23 ’23BMO	±5.3%	—	−0.7%	—	−25%	−26%	—	−24%	−1pt
Nov 17 ’22BMO	±7.7%	—	+7.8%	—	−20%	−21%	—	−29%	+9pt
All · 16	±5.7% avg	5 ranked	6.0% avg abs	6.1% avg abs	−31% median	−26% median	−28% median	−33% median	7.4pt avg abs

What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns

Report’s part: The report’s share of what options priced at 15:46 ET the day before, taken from two or more expiries.; ColumnsPriced
Rank: Where the report’s part sits among BABA’s own earlier reports, up to twelve, from 0 to 100: 0 on Aug 20 ’26 means it was priced higher than 0 of the 12 before it. Rich and cheap mark the top and bottom of that range. It needs eight earlier reports with a 10:00 move, so the oldest rows have none.; ColumnsRank
Realized: C2C is the move to the next close; By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.; ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
Chart: The grey band is what the options priced, the dark mark where the stock closed, the bar where it stood at 10:00, on a ±15% scale.; ColumnsPriced · realized · ±15%
Crush: How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry, from 15:46 ET the day before to the day after: at the new strike ATM and at the old one As-sold. Open reads it from the option’s 10:00 quotes the next morning, and is blank where there was none.; ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
Forecast: Pred. is the crush we published the day before, graded on the public record. Error is what happened minus the forecast, in points of the crush.; ColumnsPred.Error

The stock closed past the priced move on 7 of 15 and was past it at 10:00 the next morning on 8 of 13. The 14 forecasts up to May 2026 were rebuilt from history rather than published the day before, and all are graded on the public record. A dash is a number we do not have, not a zero. The muted forecast miss is left out of the average, by the rule the record uses: on Aug 20 ’26 we could not confirm the report came out after the forecast was read.

Reports16Open crush14 of 16Measured15:46 ET · day before → day afterEvery company’s full history is public

how these numbers are measured

A day's price path that ends near where it started: a short graphite bracket for the move from close to close, beside a much taller oxblood one for how far it swung in between

to the closein between

Two ways to measure the move

Closing prices miss the open

If you hold through the report you meet the open, not the close. We publish both: the move from one close to the next, and where the stock stood at 10:00 the next morning.

BABA Feb 2025: +8.1% by the close, +12.2% at 10:00.

§1 Timing and samples

One beam enters a prism and two leave, one oxblood and one slate

the reportordinary

The report’s own share of it

Option prices cover more than the report

An expiry a week out also carries a week of ordinary movement. Comparing two expiries that both contain the report separates the two, and the report's share is the priced move.

BABA Aug 2026: 2.7% from the options → 2.6% for the report, 98% of that expiry's risk.

§3 Splitting the move

Five expiries on a line; an oxblood beam strikes only the first, while a faint bracket spans all five

the one that movedwhat 30 days average

The collapse in volatility

We measure the expiry that moved

A 30-day average mixes the expiry holding the report with expiries it never reaches, so it reads shallower than what you held. We read the expiry that holds the report, the day before and the day after, at both strikes.

BABA Aug 2026: −2% new strike, +12% old strike, −1% at 10:00 the next morning.

§4 The collapse, three ways

BABA · IV crush at the report’s expiry vs the 30-day average

One expiry contains the report. The 30-day figure is an average that also covers expiries the report never reaches. Every column below leans the same way, so the gap shows on each report, not only in the median.

Collapse at the report’s expiry−30%median, whole column

Seen by the 30-day number−13%median, the part it sees

Missed by the 30-day number17pton 16 of 16 reports

Aug 20 ’26May 13 ’26Mar 19 ’26Nov 25 ’25Aug 29 ’25May 15 ’25Feb 20 ’25Nov 15 ’24Aug 15 ’24May 14 ’24Feb 7 ’24Nov 16 ’23Aug 10 ’23May 18 ’23Feb 23 ’23Nov 17 ’22

BABA · the expected move, where it closed, where it stood at 10:00

Each row is one report: the band is what the options priced, the mark is where the stock closed, and the bar runs to where it stood at 10:00 the next morning. On all 13 reports with both, the close and 10:00 pointed the same way.

Where the 10:00 number is missing, the cell stays blank instead of borrowing the close, and the data-quality grid below says why. How far apart the two run differs from company to company; this window measures it for BABA.

Median move to the next close6.0%past the price on 7 of 15

Median move by 10:00 the next morning6.3%past the price on 8 of 13

Aug 20 ’26−8.6−6.7

May 13 ’26+8.2+5.9

Nov 25 ’25−2.3−1.3

Aug 29 ’25+12.9+9.8

May 15 ’25−7.6−7.3

Feb 20 ’25+8.1+12.2

Nov 15 ’24−2.2−2.7

Aug 15 ’24+0.1+2.7

May 14 ’24−6.0−6.3

Feb 7 ’24−5.9−5.3

Nov 16 ’23−9.1−7.8

Aug 10 ’23+4.6+7.0

May 18 ’23−5.4−4.3

Feb 23 ’23−0.7—

Nov 17 ’22+7.8—

−15−7.50+7.5+15

BABA · the term structure the day before each report

The split reads the report out of the gap between the two lines. The small figure under each date is how many trading sessions the expiry holding the report had left. A shorter one carries the same report over fewer days, so it reads higher without the report being priced any bigger.

Drawn for the last twelve reports, like the other figures on this page. It is history; the current curve is on the board.

the expiry holding the reportthe next expirythe gap the split readsimplied vol, %

BABA · data quality, report by report

Counted over the 16 reports shown. Two markers are on every report (crush expiry substituted and macro event in the window), so they describe BABA rather than any one quarter. The other ten are on between one and 15 reports.

Every marker on the reports above is counted here, one cell per report, newest first as in the history table.

Aug 20
’26May 13
’26Mar 19
’26Nov 25
’25Aug 29
’25May 15
’25Feb 20
’25Nov 15
’24Aug 15
’24May 14
’24Feb 7
’24Nov 16
’23Aug 10
’23May 18
’23Feb 23
’23Nov 17
’22reports

WithheldThe cell is blank on the marked reports.

no trade at the cover2 of 16

no 10:00 tape2 of 16

no prediction1 of 16

overlapping event1 of 16

Shown as measuredNotes on how a number was measured. Each says what it touches.

crush expiry substituted16 of 16

macro event in the window16 of 16

held to expiry15 of 16

gapped past the wings10 of 16

skew contamination2 of 16

no re-struck cover IV2 of 16

noisy IV rank1 of 16

an anchor was refused1 of 16

What each marker means12 markers · 4 withhold a number

Withheld

no trade at the cover2 of 16open_crush_no_trade: The option legs did not trade at the 10:00 cover anchor, so the crush there could not be measured. It comes from the tape, not an outage, so it is permanent and counts in the published coverage ratio.; Lands inOpen
no 10:00 tape2 of 16rm_intra_unavailable: The equity minute bars behind the 10:00 anchor do not exist for this session, so the anchor is blank and stays blank. It is never substituted from the opening price: a history with two different anchors mixed together is worse than a shorter one.; Lands inBy 10:00Open
no prediction1 of 16crush_pred_unavailable: No predicted crush could be frozen for this print, so it has no entry in the scored accuracy record. Never filled in afterwards — a prediction written after the outcome is not one.; Lands inPred.Error
overlapping event1 of 16decomp_ambiguous: A second earnings report or a suppressing macro event falls inside the solve window, so the volatility priced there cannot be attributed to this print alone.; Lands inPriced move

Shown as measured

crush expiry substitutedevery reportcrush_expiry_substituted: The expiry that would have been measured was not available on both sides of the print, so a neighbouring one stood in. The crush is real; it is measured on a slightly different contract than the label implies.; Lands inATM
macro event in the windowevery reportdecomp_macro_window: A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.; Lands inPriced move
held to expiry15 of 16cover_mark_settled: The straddle that was sold expired at one of these closes, so its price there is its settlement value: the distance from the stock to the strike. That exit pays no bid/ask spread, and it ignores the cost of being assigned stock on the in-the-money leg.; Lands inShort-straddle P&Lon the ticker page, not this one
gapped past the wings10 of 16open_crush_gap_otm: The stock gapped far enough that the contract sold at T−1 is no longer near the money at the cover, so the as-sold crush there is partly a move along the smile rather than a collapse in volatility.; Lands inOpen
skew contamination2 of 16crush_skew_contaminated: The gap between the strike sold and where the stock ended up is large enough that the as-sold crush cannot stand in for the comparable one, so this print carries no scored open crush.; Lands inAccuracy recordon the public record, not this one
no re-struck cover IV2 of 16open_crush_restruck_unavailable: The comparable at-the-money volatility could not be read at the 10:00 anchor, so only the as-sold contract is available there.; Lands inOpen
noisy IV rank1 of 16iv_rank_noisy: This name’s quote width is large against its own 52-week volatility range, so the rank carries a read error worth noting. A true property of a quiet name, not a defect — the rank itself is computed normally.; Lands inIV rankon the ticker page, not this one
an anchor was refused1 of 16open_crush_anchor_unreliable: At least one observation behind the 10:00 crush was rejected: a price below intrinsic, a crossed quote, or a solve that did not converge. The number here was measured from the anchors that did invert, and is scored normally.; Lands inOpen

BABA · companies whose reports traded alike

Each company’s last twelve reports.average priced movemoved less than pricedmoved moremedian fall in implied volatilityBABA’s values

Six companies whose reports traded like BABA’s

The closest on all three numbers at the top of each company page. It compares how the reports traded, not the businesses.

Where they sit. A close-up of BABA’s part of the field; the small map in its corner shows where that sits among all 728 companies with a page and all three numbers. Grey dots are other companies here. Below the dashed line, a stock moved less than its options priced.

Figureseach company’s last twelve reportsCompared onpriced, moved, crush

the board · the last fortnight, then the next 14 days

PricedRichness · own historyRatioOutcome

Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·AAONMon 9AMC—
·ABCLMon 9AMC—
·ACHRMon 9AMC—
·AIOTMon 9BMO—
11 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

The ranked columns are the board

Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year

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Open the board

A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.
·ALTGMon 9AMC—
·AMCXMon 9AMC—
·AMGMon 9BMO—
·AMPYMon 9AMC—
·AMRCMon 9AMC—
·ANNXMon 9BMO—
·APEIMon 9AMC—

The board: the last fortnight’s settled reports, then the next 14 days
#	Name	Report	Priced move	Richness · own history	Ratio	Outcome
Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1	COPConocoPhillips	Nov 5BMO	3.4%	100	1.79	inside
2	EOGEOG Resources	Nov 5AMC	4.2%	100	1.58	inside
3	GEOGeo Group	Nov 5BMO	9.8%	100	1.31	inside
4	GHGuardant Health	Nov 5AMC	19.1%	100	2.10	inside
5	KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions	Nov 5AMC	11.9%	100	1.59	inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·	AAON	Mon 9AMC				—
·	ABCL	Mon 9AMC				—
·	ACHR	Mon 9AMC				—
·	AIOT	Mon 9BMO				—
12 of 523 shown · the next 14 days The ranked columns are the board Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them. $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year Open the board A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns. Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.
·	ALTG	Mon 9AMC				—
·	AMCX	Mon 9AMC				—
·	AMG	Mon 9BMO				—
·	AMPY	Mon 9AMC				—
·	AMRC	Mon 9AMC				—
·	ANNX	Mon 9BMO				—
·	APEI	Mon 9AMC				—
·	APPS	Mon 9AMC				—

on the board — not known yet Ranked by richness against each name's own last twelve reports. Ratio is the priced move over that name’s typical actual move; inside: the stock stayed within the priced move.

How to read this page

History table: Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
Coverage: BABA’s 16 reports. The board rows are the fortnight’s five richest settled reports, then the first of the next 523 names.
Ratio: The priced move over the name’s typical actual move.
Markers: Notes on a report’s data, counted in the data-quality grid with what each one touches.

A number looks wrong? Tell us what you expected and we’ll check it.Report a data issue

History is a record, not a forecast. Derived values only; no option prices are shown. Nothing here is investment advice.