What is BMBL's expected move for earnings?

The expected move is what the at-the-money options in the expiry containing the report imply the stock will move. This page publishes the move implied before each of BMBL's past reports and the move that actually followed. The figure for an upcoming report is on the forward board.

How is front-month IV crush different from IV30 crush?

Front-month crush measures the at-the-money implied volatility of the expiry that actually contains the earnings report, from the afternoon before to the session after. A 30-day constant-maturity measure blends that expiry with expiries that hold no event, so it consistently reports a shallower collapse.

Why measure the earnings move at 10:00 instead of the close?

Close-to-close prices an exit at 16:00 the day after the report. A position is usually closed near the open, so this page shows two realized moves for each report: C2C, the move to the next close, and By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.

CompaniesBMBLBumbleWatch

BMBL earnings: an expected move of 14.5%, an actual move of 17.8%.Averages over its last twelve reports. Here are all 14 reports.

Every Bumble earnings report since May 2023: the expected move the options priced the day before, how far the stock moved by the close and by 10:00 the next morning, and the IV crush afterwards, how far implied volatility fell. We read option prices from real quotes at 15:46 ET. Definitions on the methodology page.

Expected move14.5%the day before each of the last twelve reports

Actual move17.8%to the next close over the last twelve · 17.2% by 10:00

Past the price6of 12closes further than the options priced

On record14reportsevery report since May 2023

Median IV crush−45%over the last twelve reports · 15:46 ET

Next report—no date on the calendar yet

BMBL · the Aug 5 ’26 report, split and ranked

The options price an earnings move as one number. We take out the drift the stock would have had anyway, then rank what is left, the report’s own part, against BMBL’s earlier reports. Both were fixed at 15:46 ET the day before, and the history below does the same for every report.

1 · Split

13.8% quoted, 9.3% of it the report

The options ran twelve trading sessions, so the quote also carries twelve days of the drift BMBL has anyway: 10.2%. The two combine as squares, not sums, so 9.3 and 10.2 give 13.8. The report is 45% of that expiry’s risk.

§3 Splitting the move

2 · Rank

Lower than all of its last twelve

We rank only the report’s part, and only against BMBL’s own earlier reports, so a jumpy stock does not read rich for being jumpy. 9.3% is the 0th percentile: cheap for BMBL. Read it as roughly there: its part has a wide error bar, 0.0% to 17.1%, which takes in ten of the twelve, so the board does not sort on it.

§5 Richness

3 · What happened

Moved 6.3%, inside the 9.3%

−6.3% by the next close, −5.4% by 10:00 the next morning. The rank compares the price with BMBL’s past and does not forecast the move.

§1 Timing and samples

ReportAug 5 ’26Compared withtwelve earlier reportsRank0th percentile · cheap≈How the rank works

BMBL · what the last twelve reports show

The charts read oldest to newest, left to right.priced moveclosed inside itclosed past itfall in implied volatility

Inside or past

Inside its priced move after six of twelve

Past it: Aug 2024 −29.2%, Feb 2025 −30.4%, May 2025 +26.7%, Nov 2025 −21.8%, Mar 2026 +34.2% and May 2026 −20.0%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

The biggest

+34.2% after the Mar 2026 report

The options had priced 15.1%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

Implied volatility

Fell after every one, by 3% to 68%

Median fall 45%, at the strike nearest the price, day before to day after.

Columns Crush · ATM in the table below

The priced move

Held steady: 14.2% over the last four

From 14.6% over the eight before. The report’s own part of the move, with the ordinary drift taken out.

Columns Priced in the table below

Reportsthe last twelve, settledWrittenfrom the numbers on this pageHow each one is measured

BMBL · earnings history: expected move vs actual move, all 14

CSV ↓

Every BMBL earnings report: expected move, actual move and IV crush
Report	Report’s partPriced	Rank	RealizedC2C	By 10:00	CrushATM	As-sold	Open	ForecastPred.	Error
Aug 5 ’26AMC	±9.3%	cheap≈0	−6.2%	−5.4%	−3%	−3%	−5%	—	—
May 5 ’26AMC	±15.0%	≈50	−20.0%	−17.4%	−12%	—	−15%	—	—
Mar 11 ’26AMC	±15.1%	≈64	+34.2%	+36.8%	−29%	—	−20%	—	—
Nov 5 ’25AMC	±17.2%	rich90	−21.8%	−22.3%	−39%	−28%	−39%	−46%	+7pt
Aug 6 ’25AMC	±20.4%	rich100	−15.9%	−21.9%	−62%	—	−52%	−61%	−1pt
May 7 ’25AMC	±15.1%	≈75	+26.7%	+19.4%	−47%	—	−46%	−47%	0pt
Feb 18 ’25AMC	±15.2%	—	−30.4%	−23.1%	−46%	—	−54%	−56%	+10pt
Nov 6 ’24AMC	±12.9%	—	−0.4%	+1.9%	−54%	−53%	−41%	−46%	−8pt
Aug 7 ’24AMC	±12.9%	—	−29.2%	−37.5%	−37%	—	−24%	−44%	+7pt
May 8 ’24AMC	±13.7%	—	+11.5%	+6.2%	−53%	−52%	−46%	−56%	+3pt
Feb 27 ’24AMC	±15.9%	—	−14.8%	−8.7%	−68%	—	−54%	−55%	−13pt
Nov 7 ’23AMC	±11.1%	—	+2.9%	+5.8%	−44%	−45%	−39%	−40%	−4pt
Aug 8 ’23AMC	±12.2%	—	−7.7%	−7.1%	−46%	−46%	−36%	−44%	−2pt
May 4 ’23AMC	±11.4%	—	−0.7%	+4.7%	−37%	−37%	−21%	−31%	−6pt
All · 14	±14.1% avg	6 ranked	15.9% avg abs	15.6% avg abs	−45% median	−45% median	−39% median	−46% median	5.5pt avg abs

What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns

Report’s part: The report’s share of what options priced at 15:46 ET the day before, taken from two or more expiries.; ColumnsPriced
Rank: Where the report’s part sits among BMBL’s own earlier reports, up to twelve, from 0 to 100: 0 on Aug 5 ’26 means it was priced higher than 0 of the 12 before it. Rich and cheap mark the top and bottom of that range. It needs eight earlier reports with a 10:00 move, so the oldest rows have none. ≈ marks a rank whose report’s part was uncertain: read it as roughly there, not exactly.; ColumnsRank
Realized: C2C is the move to the next close; By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.; ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
Chart: The grey band is what the options priced, the dark mark where the stock closed, the bar where it stood at 10:00, on a ±25% scale.; ColumnsPriced · realized · ±25%
Crush: How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry, from 15:46 ET the day before to the day after: at the new strike ATM and at the old one As-sold. Open reads it from the option’s 10:00 quotes the next morning, and is blank where there was none.; ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
Forecast: Pred. is the crush we published the day before. BMBL is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. Error is what happened minus the forecast, in points of the crush.; ColumnsPred.Error

The stock closed past the priced move on 6 of 14 and was past it at 10:00 the next morning on 7 of 14. All 11 forecasts were rebuilt from history rather than published the day before, and all are graded here. BMBL is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. A dash is a number we do not have, not a zero. ≈ in Rank marks a report whose part was uncertain: ranked here against the company’s own past, but the board does not sort on it.

Reports14Open crush14 of 14Measured15:46 ET · day before → day afterEvery company’s full history is public

how these numbers are measured

A day's price path that ends near where it started: a short graphite bracket for the move from close to close, beside a much taller oxblood one for how far it swung in between

to the closein between

Two ways to measure the move

Closing prices miss the open

If you hold through the report you meet the open, not the close. We publish both: the move from one close to the next, and where the stock stood at 10:00 the next morning.

BMBL Aug 2024: −29.2% by the close, −37.5% at 10:00.

§1 Timing and samples

One beam enters a prism and two leave, one oxblood and one slate

the reportordinary

The report’s own share of it

Option prices cover more than the report

An expiry a week out also carries a week of ordinary movement. Comparing two expiries that both contain the report separates the two, and the report's share is the priced move.

BMBL Aug 2026: 13.8% from the options → 9.3% for the report, 45% of that expiry's risk.

§3 Splitting the move

Five expiries on a line; an oxblood beam strikes only the first, while a faint bracket spans all five

the one that movedwhat 30 days average

The collapse in volatility

We measure the expiry that moved

A 30-day average mixes the expiry holding the report with expiries it never reaches, so it reads shallower than what you held. We read the expiry that holds the report, the day before and the day after, at both strikes.

BMBL Aug 2026: −3% new strike, −3% old strike, −5% at 10:00 the next morning.

§4 The collapse, three ways

BMBL · IV crush at the report’s expiry vs the 30-day average

One expiry contains the report. The 30-day figure is an average that also covers expiries the report never reaches. Every column below leans the same way, so the gap shows on each report, not only in the median.

Collapse at the report’s expiry−45%median, whole column

Seen by the 30-day number−28%median, the part it sees

Missed by the 30-day number17pton 12 of 14 reports

Aug 5 ’26May 5 ’26Mar 11 ’26Nov 5 ’25Aug 6 ’25May 7 ’25Feb 18 ’25Nov 6 ’24Aug 7 ’24May 8 ’24Feb 27 ’24Nov 7 ’23Aug 8 ’23May 4 ’23

BMBL · the expected move, where it closed, where it stood at 10:00

Each row is one report: the band is what the options priced, the mark is where the stock closed, and the bar runs to where it stood at 10:00 the next morning. On 2 of 14 reports with both, the close and 10:00 pointed opposite ways.

Where the 10:00 number is missing, the cell stays blank instead of borrowing the close, and the data-quality grid below says why. How far apart the two run differs from company to company; this window measures it for BMBL.

Median move to the next close15.4%past the price on 6 of 14

Median move by 10:00 the next morning13.0%past the price on 7 of 14

Aug 5 ’26−6.2−5.4

May 5 ’26−20.0−17.4

Mar 11 ’26+34.2+36.8

Nov 5 ’25−21.8−22.3

Aug 6 ’25−15.9−21.9

May 7 ’25+26.7+19.4

Feb 18 ’25−30.4−23.1

Nov 6 ’24−0.4+1.9

Aug 7 ’24−29.2−37.5

May 8 ’24+11.5+6.2

Feb 27 ’24−14.8−8.7

Nov 7 ’23+2.9+5.8

Aug 8 ’23−7.7−7.1

May 4 ’23−0.7+4.7

−25−12.50+12.5+25

BMBL · the term structure the day before each report

The split reads the report out of the gap between the two lines. The small figure under each date is how many trading sessions the expiry holding the report had left. A shorter one carries the same report over fewer days, so it reads higher without the report being priced any bigger.

Drawn for the last twelve reports, like the other figures on this page. It is history; the current curve is on the board.

the expiry holding the reportthe next expirythe gap the split readsimplied vol, %

BMBL · data quality, report by report

Counted over the 14 reports shown. One marker is on every report (macro event in the window), so it describes BMBL rather than any one quarter. The other eleven are on between three and seven reports.

Every marker on the reports above is counted here, one cell per report, newest first as in the history table.

Aug 5
’26May 5
’26Mar 11
’26Nov 5
’25Aug 6
’25May 7
’25Feb 18
’25Nov 6
’24Aug 7
’24May 8
’24Feb 27
’24Nov 7
’23Aug 8
’23May 4
’23reports

WithheldThe cell is blank on the marked reports.

no prediction3 of 14

Shown, kept off the board’s sortPublished, but it does not rank this name on the board.

derived numbers unreliable4 of 14

thin trade at the cover4 of 14

wide straddle quote4 of 14

wide decomposition band3 of 14

Shown as measuredNotes on how a number was measured. Each says what it touches.

macro event in the window14 of 14

held to expiry7 of 14

crush expiry substituted7 of 14

gapped past the wings5 of 14

next-morning price from quotes5 of 14

noisy IV rank3 of 14

an anchor was refused3 of 14

What each marker means12 markers · 1 withholds a number

Withheld

no prediction3 of 14crush_pred_unavailable: No predicted crush could be frozen for this print, so it has no entry in the scored accuracy record. Never filled in afterwards — a prediction written after the outcome is not one.; Lands inPred.Error

Shown, kept off the board’s sort

derived numbers unreliable4 of 14derived_unreliable: Quotes on this name were too wide — or a 25Δ wing was missing — for the derived numbers on this row to be trusted: implied move, decomposition, crush and skew. Shown, kept off the board’s sort, and marked ≈ where its rank is shown.; Lands inThe derived columns
thin trade at the cover4 of 14open_crush_thin_trade: Too few prints stand behind the 10:00 anchor for it to be a reliable price. The crush is shown and kept out of the rankings.; Lands inOpen
wide straddle quote4 of 14wide_quote: The T−1 straddle’s bid-ask spread was wide relative to its own price, so every number read off that quote inherits the width. Published on purpose — the friction is real — but kept off the board’s sort, and marked ≈ where its rank is shown.; Lands inImplied (naive)Short-straddle P&Lon the ticker page, not this one
wide decomposition band3 of 14decomp_low_confidence: The decomposed implied move has a wide confidence band on this row. The number is published and kept off the board’s sort, because a sort cannot express an error bar; where its rank is shown, it is marked ≈.; Lands inPriced move

Shown as measured

macro event in the windowevery reportdecomp_macro_window: A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.; Lands inPriced move
held to expiry7 of 14cover_mark_settled: The straddle that was sold expired at one of these closes, so its price there is its settlement value: the distance from the stock to the strike. That exit pays no bid/ask spread, and it ignores the cost of being assigned stock on the in-the-money leg.; Lands inShort-straddle P&Lon the ticker page, not this one
crush expiry substituted7 of 14crush_expiry_substituted: The expiry that would have been measured was not available on both sides of the print, so a neighbouring one stood in. The crush is real; it is measured on a slightly different contract than the label implies.; Lands inATM
gapped past the wings5 of 14open_crush_gap_otm: The stock gapped far enough that the contract sold at T−1 is no longer near the money at the cover, so the as-sold crush there is partly a move along the smile rather than a collapse in volatility.; Lands inOpen
next-morning price from quotes5 of 14open_crush_restruck_quoted: The option at the 10:00 strike did not trade on both sides between 09:55 and 10:05, so the next-morning volatility was read from the midpoint of its quoted bid and ask over the same ten minutes. Used only when both sides were quoted and the quote was less than 50% wide.; Lands inOpen
noisy IV rank3 of 14iv_rank_noisy: This name’s quote width is large against its own 52-week volatility range, so the rank carries a read error worth noting. A true property of a quiet name, not a defect — the rank itself is computed normally.; Lands inIV rankon the ticker page, not this one
an anchor was refused3 of 14open_crush_anchor_unreliable: At least one observation behind the 10:00 crush was rejected: a price below intrinsic, a crossed quote, or a solve that did not converge. The number here was measured from the anchors that did invert, and is scored normally.; Lands inOpen

BMBL · companies whose reports traded alike

Each company’s last twelve reports.average priced movemoved less than pricedmoved moremedian fall in implied volatilityBMBL’s values

Six companies whose reports traded like BMBL’s

The closest on all three numbers at the top of each company page. It compares how the reports traded, not the businesses.

Where they sit. A close-up of BMBL’s part of the field; the small map in its corner shows where that sits among all 728 companies with a page and all three numbers. Grey dots are other companies here. Below the dashed line, a stock moved less than its options priced.

Figureseach company’s last twelve reportsCompared onpriced, moved, crush

the board · the last fortnight, then the next 14 days

PricedRichness · own historyRatioOutcome

Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·AAONMon 9AMC—
·ABCLMon 9AMC—
·ACHRMon 9AMC—
·AIOTMon 9BMO—
11 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

The ranked columns are the board

Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year

$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year

Open the board

A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.
·ALTGMon 9AMC—
·AMCXMon 9AMC—
·AMGMon 9BMO—
·AMPYMon 9AMC—
·AMRCMon 9AMC—
·ANNXMon 9BMO—
·APEIMon 9AMC—

The board: the last fortnight’s settled reports, then the next 14 days
#	Name	Report	Priced move	Richness · own history	Ratio	Outcome
Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1	COPConocoPhillips	Nov 5BMO	3.4%	100	1.79	inside
2	EOGEOG Resources	Nov 5AMC	4.2%	100	1.58	inside
3	GEOGeo Group	Nov 5BMO	9.8%	100	1.31	inside
4	GHGuardant Health	Nov 5AMC	19.1%	100	2.10	inside
5	KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions	Nov 5AMC	11.9%	100	1.59	inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·	AAON	Mon 9AMC				—
·	ABCL	Mon 9AMC				—
·	ACHR	Mon 9AMC				—
·	AIOT	Mon 9BMO				—
12 of 523 shown · the next 14 days The ranked columns are the board Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them. $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year Open the board A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns. Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.
·	ALTG	Mon 9AMC				—
·	AMCX	Mon 9AMC				—
·	AMG	Mon 9BMO				—
·	AMPY	Mon 9AMC				—
·	AMRC	Mon 9AMC				—
·	ANNX	Mon 9BMO				—
·	APEI	Mon 9AMC				—
·	APPS	Mon 9AMC				—

on the board — not known yet Ranked by richness against each name's own last twelve reports. Ratio is the priced move over that name’s typical actual move; inside: the stock stayed within the priced move.

How to read this page

History table: Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
Coverage: BMBL’s 14 reports. The board rows are the fortnight’s five richest settled reports, then the first of the next 523 names.
Ratio: The priced move over the name’s typical actual move.
Markers: Notes on a report’s data, counted in the data-quality grid with what each one touches.

A number looks wrong? Tell us what you expected and we’ll check it.Report a data issue

History is a record, not a forecast. Derived values only; no option prices are shown. Nothing here is investment advice.