ESTC earnings: an expected move of 16.3%, an actual move of 16.2%.Averages over its last twelve reports. Here are all 14 reports.
Every Elastic earnings report since Jun 2023: the expected move the options priced the day before, how far the stock moved by the close and by 10:00 the next morning, and the IV crush afterwards, how far implied volatility fell. We read option prices from real quotes at 15:46 ET. Definitions on the methodology page.
Next report · after the close · 11 days out
ESTC’s expected move for Thu 19 Nov
The options already price it. The number, and how rich it is against ESTC’s own history, opens free on report day, Thu 19 Nov, with an account. Subscribers read it now.
The options price an earnings move as one number. We take out the drift the stock would have had anyway, then rank what is left, the report’s own part, against ESTC’s earlier reports. Both were fixed at 15:46 ET the day before, and the history below does the same for every report.
19.1% quoted, 17.0% of it the report
The options ran fifteen trading sessions, so the quote also carries fifteen days of the drift ESTC has anyway: 8.8%. The two combine as squares, not sums, so 17.0 and 8.8 give 19.1. The report is 79% of that expiry’s risk.
Higher than seven of its last twelve
We rank only the report’s part, and only against ESTC’s own earlier reports, so a jumpy stock does not read rich for being jumpy. 17.0% is the 58th percentile: neither rich nor cheap for ESTC. Read it as roughly there: its part has a wide error bar, 9.8% to 21.9%, which takes in eleven of the twelve, so the board does not sort on it.
Moved 19.3%, past the 17.0%
+19.3% by the next close, +23.4% by 10:00 the next morning. The rank compares the price with ESTC’s past and does not forecast the move.
Inside its priced move after nine of twelve
Past it: Nov 2023 +37.1%, Aug 2024 −26.5% and Aug 2026 +19.3%.
+37.1% after the Nov 2023 report
The options had priced 12.6%.
Fell after every one, by 35% to 56%
Median fall 49%, at the strike nearest the price, day before to day after.
Grown: 18.0% over the last four
From 15.5% over the eight before. The report’s own part of the move, with the ordinary drift taken out.
| Report | Report’s partPriced | Rank | RealizedC2C | By 10:00 | Priced · realized · ±25% | CrushATM | As-sold | Open | ForecastPred. | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 ’26 | ±17.0% | ≈58 | +19.3% | +23.4% | −51% | −45% | −41% | — | — | |
| May 28 ’26 | ±20.0% | rich≈100 | +12.3% | +2.9% | −38% | −42% | −38% | — | — | |
| Feb 26 ’26 | ±17.2% | ≈73 | −15.4% | −14.1% | −35% | −35% | −38% | — | — | |
| Nov 20 ’25 | ±17.8% | rich90 | −14.7% | −12.0% | −43% | −39% | −39% | −48% | +5pt | |
| Aug 28 ’25 | ±15.6% | 78 | −3.1% | −3.6% | −48% | −46% | −43% | −54% | +6pt | |
| May 29 ’25 | ±14.7% | 50 | −12.1% | −14.4% | −50% | −51% | −50% | −51% | +1pt | |
| Feb 27 ’25 | ±15.6% | — | +14.9% | +12.9% | −51% | −45% | −48% | −55% | +5pt | |
| Nov 21 ’24 | ±18.0% | — | +14.8% | +18.2% | −53% | −53% | −36% | −52% | −1pt | |
| Aug 29 ’24 | ±14.4% | — | −26.5% | −27.4% | −48% | — | −39% | −51% | +3pt | |
| May 30 ’24 | ±15.4% | — | +11.7% | +9.6% | −52% | −50% | −39% | −52% | 0pt | |
| Feb 29 ’24 | ±17.8% | — | −12.6% | −11.3% | −56% | −53% | −50% | −57% | +1pt | |
| Nov 30 ’23 | ±12.6% | — | +37.1% | +33.2% | −41% | — | −21% | −49% | +8pt | |
| Aug 31 ’23 | ±9.6% | — | +20.0% | +16.3% | −33% | −6% | −28% | −42% | +9pt | |
| Jun 1 ’23 | ±10.9% | — | +0.9% | +0.7% | −44% | −44% | −42% | −37% | −6pt | |
| All · 14 | ±15.5% avg | 6 ranked | 15.4% avg abs | 14.3% avg abs | −48% median | −45% median | −39% median | −51% median | 4.1pt avg abs |
What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns
- Report’s part
- The report’s share of what options priced at 15:46 ET the day before, taken from two or more expiries.
- ColumnsPriced
- Rank
- Where the report’s part sits among ESTC’s own earlier reports, up to twelve, from 0 to 100: 58 on Aug 27 ’26 means it was priced higher than 7 of the 12 before it. Rich and cheap mark the top and bottom of that range. It needs eight earlier reports with a 10:00 move, so the oldest rows have none. ≈ marks a rank whose report’s part was uncertain: read it as roughly there, not exactly.
- ColumnsRank
- Realized
- C2C is the move to the next close; By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.
- ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
- Chart
- The grey band is what the options priced, the dark mark where the stock closed, the bar where it stood at 10:00, on a ±25% scale.
- ColumnsPriced · realized · ±25%
- Crush
- How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry, from 15:46 ET the day before to the day after: at the new strike ATM and at the old one As-sold. Open reads it from the option’s 10:00 quotes the next morning, and is blank where there was none.
- ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
- Forecast
- Pred. is the crush we published the day before. ESTC is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. Error is what happened minus the forecast, in points of the crush.
- ColumnsPred.Error
to the closein betweenClosing prices miss the open
If you hold through the report you meet the open, not the close. We publish both: the move from one close to the next, and where the stock stood at 10:00 the next morning.
the reportordinaryOption prices cover more than the report
An expiry a week out also carries a week of ordinary movement. Comparing two expiries that both contain the report separates the two, and the report's share is the priced move.
the one that movedwhat 30 days averageWe measure the expiry that moved
A 30-day average mixes the expiry holding the report with expiries it never reaches, so it reads shallower than what you held. We read the expiry that holds the report, the day before and the day after, at both strikes.
One expiry contains the report. The 30-day figure is an average that also covers expiries the report never reaches. Every column below leans the same way, so the gap shows on each report, not only in the median.
Each row is one report: the band is what the options priced, the mark is where the stock closed, and the bar runs to where it stood at 10:00 the next morning. On all 14 reports with both, the close and 10:00 pointed the same way.
Where the 10:00 number is missing, the cell stays blank instead of borrowing the close, and the data-quality grid below says why. How far apart the two run differs from company to company; this window measures it for ESTC.
The split reads the report out of the gap between the two lines. The small figure under each date is how many trading sessions the expiry holding the report had left. A shorter one carries the same report over fewer days, so it reads higher without the report being priced any bigger.
Drawn for the last twelve reports, like the other figures on this page. It is history; the current curve is on the board.
Counted over the 14 reports shown. One marker is on every report (macro event in the window), so it describes ESTC rather than any one quarter. The other nine are on between one and six reports.
Every marker on the reports above is counted here, one cell per report, newest first as in the history table.
’26May 28
’26Feb 26
’26Nov 20
’25Aug 28
’25May 29
’25Feb 27
’25Nov 21
’24Aug 29
’24May 30
’24Feb 29
’24Nov 30
’23Aug 31
’23Jun 1
’23reports
What each marker means10 markers · 1 withholds a number
Withheld
- no prediction3 of 14
crush_pred_unavailable - No predicted crush could be frozen for this print, so it has no entry in the scored accuracy record. Never filled in afterwards — a prediction written after the outcome is not one.
- Lands inPred.Error
Shown, kept off the board’s sort
- wide decomposition band3 of 14
decomp_low_confidence - The decomposed implied move has a wide confidence band on this row. The number is published and kept off the board’s sort, because a sort cannot express an error bar; where its rank is shown, it is marked ≈.
- Lands inPriced move
- thin trade at the cover2 of 14
open_crush_thin_trade - Too few prints stand behind the 10:00 anchor for it to be a reliable price. The crush is shown and kept out of the rankings.
- Lands inOpen
Shown as measured
- macro event in the windowevery report
decomp_macro_window - A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.
- Lands inPriced move
- gapped past the wings6 of 14
open_crush_gap_otm - The stock gapped far enough that the contract sold at T−1 is no longer near the money at the cover, so the as-sold crush there is partly a move along the smile rather than a collapse in volatility.
- Lands inOpen
- an anchor was refused4 of 14
open_crush_anchor_unreliable - At least one observation behind the 10:00 crush was rejected: a price below intrinsic, a crossed quote, or a solve that did not converge. The number here was measured from the anchors that did invert, and is scored normally.
- Lands inOpen
- next-morning price from quotes2 of 14
open_crush_restruck_quoted - The option at the 10:00 strike did not trade on both sides between 09:55 and 10:05, so the next-morning volatility was read from the midpoint of its quoted bid and ask over the same ten minutes. Used only when both sides were quoted and the quote was less than 50% wide.
- Lands inOpen
- held to expiry1 of 14
cover_mark_settled - The straddle that was sold expired at one of these closes, so its price there is its settlement value: the distance from the stock to the strike. That exit pays no bid/ask spread, and it ignores the cost of being assigned stock on the in-the-money leg.
- Lands inShort-straddle P&Lon the ticker page, not this one
- crush expiry substituted1 of 14
crush_expiry_substituted - The expiry that would have been measured was not available on both sides of the print, so a neighbouring one stood in. The crush is real; it is measured on a slightly different contract than the label implies.
- Lands inATM
- noisy IV rank1 of 14
iv_rank_noisy - This name’s quote width is large against its own 52-week volatility range, so the rank carries a read error worth noting. A true property of a quiet name, not a defect — the rank itself is computed normally.
- Lands inIV rankon the ticker page, not this one
Six companies whose reports traded like ESTC’s
The closest on all three numbers at the top of each company page. It compares how the reports traded, not the businesses.
ESTCthis pagepriced 16.3% · moved 16.2%−49%
PENGPenguin Solutionspriced 15.2% · moved 17.9%−48%
DUOLDuolingopriced 14.4% · moved 15.4%−48%
ASANAsanapriced 16.6% · moved 13.7%−49%
SGSweetgreenpriced 16.8% · moved 14.3%−47%
RELYRemitly Globalpriced 15.6% · moved 13.8%−50%
GTMZoomInfo Technologiespriced 14.5% · moved 16.5%−47%
- Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
- Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
- ·AAONMon 9AMC—
- ·ABCLMon 9AMC—
- ·ACHRMon 9AMC—
- ·AIOTMon 9BMO—
- 11 of 523 shown · the next 14 days
The ranked columns are the board
Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.
A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.
Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.
- ·ALTGMon 9AMC—
- ·AMCXMon 9AMC—
- ·AMGMon 9BMO—
- ·AMPYMon 9AMC—
- ·AMRCMon 9AMC—
- ·ANNXMon 9BMO—
- ·APEIMon 9AMC—
| # | Name | Report | Priced move | Richness · own history | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free | ||||||
| 1 | COPConocoPhillips | Nov 5BMO | 3.4% | 100 | 1.79 | inside |
| 2 | EOGEOG Resources | Nov 5AMC | 4.2% | 100 | 1.58 | inside |
| 3 | GEOGeo Group | Nov 5BMO | 9.8% | 100 | 1.31 | inside |
| 4 | GHGuardant Health | Nov 5AMC | 19.1% | 100 | 2.10 | inside |
| 5 | KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions | Nov 5AMC | 11.9% | 100 | 1.59 | inside |
| Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free | ||||||
| · | AAON | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
| · | ABCL | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
| · | ACHR | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
| · | AIOT | Mon 9BMO | — | |||
12 of 523 shown · the next 14 days
The ranked columns are the boardSymbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them. A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns. Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board. | ||||||
| · | ALTG | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
| · | AMCX | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
| · | AMG | Mon 9BMO | — | |||
| · | AMPY | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
| · | AMRC | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
| · | ANNX | Mon 9BMO | — | |||
| · | APEI | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
| · | APPS | Mon 9AMC | — | |||
How to read this page
- History table
- Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
- Coverage
- ESTC’s 14 reports. The board rows are the fortnight’s five richest settled reports, then the first of the next 523 names.
- Ratio
- The priced move over the name’s typical actual move.
- Markers
- Notes on a report’s data, counted in the data-quality grid with what each one touches.
A number looks wrong? Tell us what you expected and we’ll check it.Report a data issue
History is a record, not a forecast. Derived values only; no option prices are shown. Nothing here is investment advice.