VolModel
Create free accountUpgrade
Account
Watchlistthe names you followAccountplan and sign-in

CompaniesRBRKRubrikWatch

RBRK earnings: an expected move of 15.5%, an actual move of 11.9%.Averages over its last ten reports. Here they are.

Every Rubrik earnings report since Jun 2024: the expected move the options priced the day before, how far the stock moved by the close and by 10:00 the next morning, and the IV crush afterwards, how far implied volatility fell. We read option prices from real quotes at 15:46 ET. Definitions on the methodology page.

Next reportThu 3Dec · AMC25 days out
Expected move15.5%the day before each of the last ten reports
Actual move11.9%to the next close over the last ten · 11.0% by 10:00
Past the price5of 10closes further than the options priced
On record10reportsevery report since Jun 2024
Median IV crush−50%over the last ten reports · 15:46 ET

Next report · after the close · 25 days out

RBRK’s expected move for Thu 3 Dec

There is no reading for this report yet. When there is, it opens free on report day, Thu 3 Dec, with an account.

Create a free account

RBRK · the Aug 27 ’26 report, split and ranked

The options price an earnings move as one number. We take out the drift the stock would have had anyway, then rank what is left, the report’s own part, against RBRK’s earlier reports. Both were fixed at 15:46 ET the day before, and the history below does the same for every report.

1 · Split

The whole 13.1% is the report

quoted13.1%the report12.8%ordinarynone0%5%10%15%

The options expired the session after the report, so the quote has no ordinary days in it and there is nothing to take out. Our estimate of the report’s part, read from eight expiries, agrees within its range: 12.8%, between 11.2 and 14.3. On a longer expiry this step splits the quote in two.

§3 Splitting the move

2 · Rank

Lower than all of its last nine

cheaprichAug 27 ’26 · 12.8%lowest of the tenhighest

We rank only the report’s part, and only against RBRK’s own earlier reports, so a jumpy stock does not read rich for being jumpy. 12.8% is the 0th percentile: cheap for RBRK.

§5 Richness

3 · What happened

Moved 13.1%, past the 12.8%

priced ±12.8%close −13.1% · 10:00 −8.6%−20%0+20%

−13.1% by the next close, −8.6% by 10:00 the next morning. The rank compares the price with RBRK’s past and does not forecast the move.

§1 Timing and samples

ReportAug 27 ’26Compared withnine earlier reportsRank0th percentile · cheapHow the rank works 

RBRK · what the last ten reports show

The charts read oldest to newest, left to right.priced moveclosed inside itclosed past itfall in implied volatility
Inside or past

Inside its priced move after five of ten

Jun ’24: priced 15.1%, moved −8.9%Sep ’24: priced 16.4%, moved −1.5%Dec ’24: priced 16.5%, moved +20.4%Mar ’25: priced 19.1%, moved +27.8%Jun ’25: priced 15.5%, moved −0.7%Sep ’25: priced 14.7%, moved −18.1%Dec ’25: priced 13.5%, moved +22.5%Mar ’26: priced 15.4%, moved −1.1%Jun ’26: priced 16.3%, moved −4.7%Aug ’26: priced 12.8%, moved −13.1%Jun ’24Aug ’26

Past it: Dec 2024 +20.4%, Mar 2025 +27.8%, Sep 2025 −18.1%, Dec 2025 +22.5% and Aug 2026 −13.1%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

The biggest

+27.8% after the Mar 2025 report

priced19.1%moved, to the next close27.8%Mar ’25

The options had priced 19.1%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

Implied volatility

Fell after every one, by 37% to 62%

Jun ’24: −40%Sep ’24: −55%Dec ’24: −37%Mar ’25: −62%Jun ’25: −51%Sep ’25: −49%Dec ’25: −56%Mar ’26: −49%Jun ’26: −50%Aug ’26: −47%median −50%Jun ’24Aug ’26

Median fall 50%, at the strike nearest the price, day before to day after.

Columns Crush · ATM in the table below

The priced move

Held steady: 14.5% over the last four

Jun ’24: priced 15.1%Sep ’24: priced 16.4%Dec ’24: priced 16.5%Mar ’25: priced 19.1%Jun ’25: priced 15.5%Sep ’25: priced 14.7%Dec ’25: priced 13.5%Mar ’26: priced 15.4%Jun ’26: priced 16.3%Aug ’26: priced 12.8%16.2%14.5%six beforelast four

From 16.2% over the six before. The report’s own part of the move, with the ordinary drift taken out.

Columns Priced in the table below

Reportsthe last ten, settledWrittenfrom the numbers on this pageHow each one is measured 

RBRK · earnings history: expected move vs actual move, all 10

CSV ↓
Columns shown on a phone
Every RBRK earnings report: expected move, actual move and IV crush
Report Report’s partPricedRank RealizedC2C By 10:00 Priced · realized · ±25% CrushATM As-sold Open ForecastPred. Error
Aug 27 ’26AMC ±12.8% cheap0 −13.1% −8.6% −47% −47% — −45% −1pt
Jun 4 ’26AMC ±16.3% 63 −4.7% −4.2% −50% −48% −43% −50% −1pt
Mar 12 ’26AMC ±15.4% — −1.1% +1.1% −49% −49% −46% −48% −1pt
Dec 4 ’25AMC ±13.5% — +22.5% +21.5% −56% — −44% −54% −3pt
Sep 9 ’25AMC ±14.7% — −18.1% −15.2% −49% −38% −43% −48% 0pt
Jun 5 ’25AMC ±15.5% — −0.7% −1.6% −51% −51% −43% −45% −6pt
Mar 13 ’25AMC ±19.1% — +27.8% +19.9% −62% −47% −50% −57% −6pt
Dec 5 ’24AMC ±16.5% — +20.4% +28.6% −37% −32% −36% −51% +14pt
Sep 9 ’24AMC ±16.4% — −1.5% −6.5% −55% −55% −46% — —
Jun 11 ’24AMC ±15.1% — −8.9% +2.6% −40% −34% −32% −54% +14pt
All · 10 ±15.5% avg 2 ranked 11.9% avg abs 11.0% avg abs −50% median −47% median −43% median −50% median 5.1pt avg abs
What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns
Report’s part
The report’s share of what options priced at 15:46 ET the day before, taken from two or more expiries.
ColumnsPriced
Rank
Where the report’s part sits among RBRK’s own earlier reports, up to twelve, from 0 to 100: 0 on Aug 27 ’26 means it was priced higher than 0 of the 9 before it. Rich and cheap mark the top and bottom of that range. It needs eight earlier reports with a 10:00 move, so the oldest rows have none.
ColumnsRank
Realized
C2C is the move to the next close; By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.
ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
Chart
The grey band is what the options priced, the dark mark where the stock closed, the bar where it stood at 10:00, on a ±25% scale.
ColumnsPriced · realized · ±25%
Crush
How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry, from 15:46 ET the day before to the day after: at the new strike ATM and at the old one As-sold. Open reads it from the option’s 10:00 quotes the next morning, and is blank where there was none.
ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
Forecast
Pred. is the crush we published the day before. RBRK is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. Error is what happened minus the forecast, in points of the crush.
ColumnsPred.Error
The stock closed past the priced move on 5 of 10 and was past it at 10:00 the next morning on 4 of 10. All 9 forecasts were rebuilt from history rather than published the day before, and all are graded here. RBRK is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. A dash is a number we do not have, not a zero.
Reports10Open crush9 of 10Measured15:46 ET · day before → day afterEvery company’s full history is public 

how these numbers are measured

A day's price path that ends near where it started: a short graphite bracket for the move from close to close, beside a much taller oxblood one for how far it swung in betweento the closein between
Two ways to measure the move

Closing prices miss the open

If you hold through the report you meet the open, not the close. We publish both: the move from one close to the next, and where the stock stood at 10:00 the next morning.

RBRK Dec 2024: +20.4% by the close, +28.6% at 10:00.

§1 Timing and samples

One beam enters a prism and two leave, one oxblood and one slatethe reportordinary
The report’s own share of it

Option prices cover more than the report

An expiry a week out also carries a week of ordinary movement. Comparing two expiries that both contain the report separates the two, and the report's share is the priced move.

RBRK Aug 2026: 13.1% from the options → 12.8% for the report, 96% of that expiry's risk.

§3 Splitting the move

Five expiries on a line; an oxblood beam strikes only the first, while a faint bracket spans all fivethe one that movedwhat 30 days average
The collapse in volatility

We measure the expiry that moved

A 30-day average mixes the expiry holding the report with expiries it never reaches, so it reads shallower than what you held. We read the expiry that holds the report, the day before and the day after, at both strikes.

RBRK Aug 2026: −47% new strike, −47% old strike.

§4 The collapse, three ways

RBRK · IV crush at the report’s expiry vs the 30-day average

One expiry contains the report. The 30-day figure is an average that also covers expiries the report never reaches. Every column below leans the same way, so the gap shows on each report, not only in the median.

Collapse at the report’s expiry−49%median, whole column
Seen by the 30-day number−31%median, the part it sees
Missed by the 30-day number18pton 10 of 10 reports
Aug 27 ’26Jun 4 ’26Mar 12 ’26Dec 4 ’25Sep 9 ’25Jun 5 ’25Mar 13 ’25Dec 5 ’24Sep 9 ’24Jun 11 ’24

RBRK · the expected move, where it closed, where it stood at 10:00

Each row is one report: the band is what the options priced, the mark is where the stock closed, and the bar runs to where it stood at 10:00 the next morning. On 2 of 10 reports with both, the close and 10:00 pointed opposite ways.

Where the 10:00 number is missing, the cell stays blank instead of borrowing the close, and the data-quality grid below says why. How far apart the two run differs from company to company; this window measures it for RBRK.

Median move to the next close11.0%past the price on 5 of 10
Median move by 10:00 the next morning7.5%past the price on 4 of 10
Aug 27 ’26−13.1−8.6
Jun 4 ’26−4.7−4.2
Mar 12 ’26−1.1+1.1
Dec 4 ’25+22.5+21.5
Sep 9 ’25−18.1−15.2
Jun 5 ’25−0.7−1.6
Mar 13 ’25+27.8+19.9
Dec 5 ’24+20.4+28.6
Sep 9 ’24−1.5−6.5
Jun 11 ’24−8.9+2.6
−25−12.50+12.5+25

RBRK · the term structure the day before each report

The split reads the report out of the gap between the two lines. The small figure under each date is how many trading sessions the expiry holding the report had left. A shorter one carries the same report over fewer days, so it reads higher without the report being priced any bigger.

Drawn for the last twelve reports, like the other figures on this page. It is history; the current curve is on the board.

the expiry holding the reportthe next expirythe gap the split readsimplied vol, %

RBRK · data quality, report by report

Counted over the 10 reports shown. One marker is on every report (macro event in the window), so it describes RBRK rather than any one quarter. The other twelve are on between one and four reports.

Every marker on the reports above is counted here, one cell per report, newest first as in the history table.

Aug 27
’26Jun 4
’26Mar 12
’26Dec 4
’25Sep 9
’25Jun 5
’25Mar 13
’25Dec 5
’24Sep 9
’24Jun 11
’24reports
WithheldThe cell is blank on the marked reports.
no prediction1 of 10
no trade at the cover1 of 10
Shown, kept off the board’s sortPublished, but it does not rank this name on the board.
wide decomposition band1 of 10
thin trade at the cover1 of 10
Shown as measuredNotes on how a number was measured. Each says what it touches.
macro event in the window10 of 10
held to expiry4 of 10
crush expiry substituted4 of 10
gapped past the wings3 of 10
noisy IV rank2 of 10
next-morning price from quotes2 of 10
skew contamination1 of 10
an anchor was refused1 of 10
no re-struck cover IV1 of 10
What each marker means13 markers · 2 withhold a number

Withheld

no prediction1 of 10crush_pred_unavailable
No predicted crush could be frozen for this print, so it has no entry in the scored accuracy record. Never filled in afterwards — a prediction written after the outcome is not one.
Lands inPred.Error
no trade at the cover1 of 10open_crush_no_trade
The option legs did not trade at the 10:00 cover anchor, so the crush there could not be measured. It comes from the tape, not an outage, so it is permanent and counts in the published coverage ratio.
Lands inOpen

Shown, kept off the board’s sort

wide decomposition band1 of 10decomp_low_confidence
The decomposed implied move has a wide confidence band on this row. The number is published and kept off the board’s sort, because a sort cannot express an error bar; where its rank is shown, it is marked ≈.
Lands inPriced move
thin trade at the cover1 of 10open_crush_thin_trade
Too few prints stand behind the 10:00 anchor for it to be a reliable price. The crush is shown and kept out of the rankings.
Lands inOpen

Shown as measured

macro event in the windowevery reportdecomp_macro_window
A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.
Lands inPriced move
held to expiry4 of 10cover_mark_settled
The straddle that was sold expired at one of these closes, so its price there is its settlement value: the distance from the stock to the strike. That exit pays no bid/ask spread, and it ignores the cost of being assigned stock on the in-the-money leg.
Lands inShort-straddle P&Lon the ticker page, not this one
crush expiry substituted4 of 10crush_expiry_substituted
The expiry that would have been measured was not available on both sides of the print, so a neighbouring one stood in. The crush is real; it is measured on a slightly different contract than the label implies.
Lands inATM
gapped past the wings3 of 10open_crush_gap_otm
The stock gapped far enough that the contract sold at T−1 is no longer near the money at the cover, so the as-sold crush there is partly a move along the smile rather than a collapse in volatility.
Lands inOpen
noisy IV rank2 of 10iv_rank_noisy
This name’s quote width is large against its own 52-week volatility range, so the rank carries a read error worth noting. A true property of a quiet name, not a defect — the rank itself is computed normally.
Lands inIV rankon the ticker page, not this one
next-morning price from quotes2 of 10open_crush_restruck_quoted
The option at the 10:00 strike did not trade on both sides between 09:55 and 10:05, so the next-morning volatility was read from the midpoint of its quoted bid and ask over the same ten minutes. Used only when both sides were quoted and the quote was less than 50% wide.
Lands inOpen
skew contamination1 of 10crush_skew_contaminated
The gap between the strike sold and where the stock ended up is large enough that the as-sold crush cannot stand in for the comparable one, so this print carries no scored open crush.
Lands inAccuracy recordon the public record, which does not include this company
an anchor was refused1 of 10open_crush_anchor_unreliable
At least one observation behind the 10:00 crush was rejected: a price below intrinsic, a crossed quote, or a solve that did not converge. The number here was measured from the anchors that did invert, and is scored normally.
Lands inOpen
no re-struck cover IV1 of 10open_crush_restruck_unavailable
The comparable at-the-money volatility could not be read at the 10:00 anchor, so only the as-sold contract is available there.
Lands inOpen

RBRK · companies whose reports traded alike

Each company’s last twelve reports.average priced movemoved less than pricedmoved moremedian fall in implied volatilityRBRK’s values

Six companies whose reports traded like RBRK’s

The closest on all three numbers at the top of each company page. It compares how the reports traded, not the businesses.

10%12%12%15%15%20%AAOIAAPACMRAEOAFRMAIAKAMALABAMBAAMPLAMSCANFAPLDARDXARRYAURAVAVAXONBBBEBILLBROSBYNDCALYCARCAVACELHCHWYCIENCIFRCLSCNXCCOHRCRDOCRNCCRWVCVNACWHCXMDAVEDDOGDLODOCNDOCUDUOLELFENPHENVXEOSEESTCFCELFIGFIVNFNFOURFRPTFUBOFVRRGAPGCTGHGIIIGLBEGMEGTLBGTMHELEHIMSHLFHTZINSPIONQIOTIRENKDKSSKVYOLEULITELMNDLNTHLOVELRNLSCCLUMNLZMEDMGNIMNDYNBISNETNTNXNTRANTSKNVTSNXTOKLOOKTAOPENOSCROUSTPPATHPCTPDPGNYPGYPINSPLABPLAYPLTRPLUGPTONQBTSQDELQUBTRBLXRDDTRHRIVNRMBSRNGROKURPDRUMRUNRVLVSSESEDGSGSHOPSMCISMRSMTCSNAPSNOWSOFISOUNSPCESPTSWBITDCTDOCTEAMTLRYTMDXTRIPTRUPTTDTWLOUVGVSXYWWINGWIXWOLFWRBYWULFWWWYOUZETAZUMZRELYASANLYFTUPWKRBRKUNFIARLOaverage priced move →average move made →all 728
Where they sit. A close-up of RBRK’s part of the field; the small map in its corner shows where that sits among all 728 companies with a page and all three numbers. Grey dots are other companies here. Below the dashed line, a stock moved less than its options priced.
Figureseach company’s last twelve reportsCompared onpriced, moved, crush

the board · the last fortnight, then the next 14 days

PricedRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
  1. Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
  2. 1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
  3. 2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
  4. 3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
  5. 4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
  6. 5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
  7. Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
  8. ·AAONMon 9AMC—
  9. ·ABCLMon 9AMC—
  10. ·ACHRMon 9AMC—
  11. ·AIOTMon 9BMO—
  12. 11 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

    The ranked columns are the board

    Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
    Open the board

    A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

    Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

  13. ·ALTGMon 9AMC—
  14. ·AMCXMon 9AMC—
  15. ·AMGMon 9BMO—
  16. ·AMPYMon 9AMC—
  17. ·AMRCMon 9AMC—
  18. ·ANNXMon 9BMO—
  19. ·APEIMon 9AMC—
The board: the last fortnight’s settled reports, then the next 14 days
#NameReportPriced moveRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·AAONMon 9AMC—
·ABCLMon 9AMC—
·ACHRMon 9AMC—
·AIOTMon 9BMO—
12 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

The ranked columns are the board

Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
Open the board

A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

·ALTGMon 9AMC—
·AMCXMon 9AMC—
·AMGMon 9BMO—
·AMPYMon 9AMC—
·AMRCMon 9AMC—
·ANNXMon 9BMO—
·APEIMon 9AMC—
·APPSMon 9AMC—
on the board — not known yet Ranked by richness against each name's own last twelve reports. Ratio is the priced move over that name’s typical actual move; inside: the stock stayed within the priced move.

How to read this page

History table
Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
Coverage
RBRK’s 10 reports. The board rows are the fortnight’s five richest settled reports, then the first of the next 523 names.
Ratio
The priced move over the name’s typical actual move.
Markers
Notes on a report’s data, counted in the data-quality grid with what each one touches.

A number looks wrong? Tell us what you expected and we’ll check it.Report a data issue

History is a record, not a forecast. Derived values only; no option prices are shown. Nothing here is investment advice.