RF has no report on the calendar yet.
Over its last 12 reports RF’s options priced a 4.0% move on average and the stock moved 1.7% by the close. Once the next report is dated, a free account shows the implied volatility behind it, and on the day it reports, the priced move and how rich it is against those twelve. The settled history below is public.
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How RF’s options price its next report
Read at 15:46 ET from every expiry that holds the report, and split into the report’s own share and ordinary movement.
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- RF for its next reportthe implied volatility now; the priced move and its richness the day it reports
- What selling it keptat the open, at 10:00 and at the close, report by report
- Every other tickerwith no limit, and today’s board
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| Report | Report’s partPriced | RealizedC2C | By 10:00 | Priced · realized · ±25% | CrushATM | As-sold | Open | ForecastPred. | Error | SoldP&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 ’26 | ±3.6% | +0.5% | +1.8% | −10% | −11% | −5% | −6% | −5pt | ||
| Jul 17 ’26 | ±3.6% | −2.3% | −0.4% | −12% | −15% | −6% | −11%rec | −1pt | ||
| Apr 17 ’26 | ±3.9% | +0.7% | +0.1% | −10% | −8% | −8% | −14%rec | +3pt | ||
| Jan 16 ’26 | ±3.5% | −2.6% | −3.2% | −11% | −18% | −2% | −13%rec | +3pt | ||
| Oct 17 ’25 | ±4.7% | +1.0% | −0.3% | −10% | −9% | 0% | −11%rec | +2pt | ||
| Jul 18 ’25 | ±3.6% | +6.1% | +4.4% | −17% | −9% | −19% | −15%rec | −1pt | ||
| Apr 17 ’25 | ±3.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | −12% | −12% | −7% | — | — | ||
| Jan 17 ’25 | ±3.8% | −1.3% | −0.8% | −13% | −16% | −12% | −14%rec | +1pt | ||
| Oct 18 ’24 | ±5.1% | −0.7% | 0.0% | −17% | −16% | −10% | −16%rec | 0pt | ||
| Jul 19 ’24 | ±4.3% | 0.0% | +1.4% | −19% | −19% | −14% | −19%rec | 0pt | ||
| Apr 19 ’24 | ±3.9% | −0.5% | −2.3% | −12% | −12% | −10% | −12%rec | 0pt | ||
| Jan 19 ’24 | ±4.7% | +3.7% | +1.0% | −24% | −22% | −14% | −16%rec | −8pt | ||
| Oct 20 ’23 | ±4.4% | −12.4% | −14.5% | 25% | 11% | 14% | −9%rec | +34pt | ||
| Jul 21 ’23 | ±3.7% | −3.0% | −1.1% | −19% | −20% | −9% | −10%rec | −9pt | ||
| Apr 21 ’23 | ±3.5% | −2.8% | −3.1% | −1% | −7% | −10% | −4%rec | +3pt | ||
| All · 15 | ±4.0% avg | 2.6% avg either way | 2.3% avg either way | −12% median | −12% median | −9% median | −12.5% median | 5.0 average |
What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns
- Report’s part
- The report’s own share of what the options priced the day before, taken from two or more expiries.
- ColumnsPriced
- Realized
- C2C is the previous close to the next close; By 10:00, the 09:55–10:05 ET average price against the previous close, never substituted from the open when it is missing.
- ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
- Chart
- The grey band is what the options priced and the marks are what happened, on a ±25% scale.
- ColumnsPriced · realized · ±25%
- Crush
- How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry. ATM is at the strike nearest the price, day before to day after at 15:46, read late in the session, so it does not compare with a figure read at the open. As-sold is at the strike a position was already holding; a blank there is not a small crush, because after a big move that strike is often no longer quoted the day after. Open is backed out of the option’s own 10:00 price the next morning.
- ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
- Forecast
- Pred. is the crush we wrote the day before the report and never changed, marked rec where it was rebuilt from history. Error is what happened minus the forecast, graded against the collapse at the new strike, in points of the crush.
- ColumnsPred.Error
- Sold
- P&L: sold at the bid the day before and bought back at the 10:00 ask, as a share of the premium collected. A record of what happened, not a recommendation.
- ColumnsP&L
- The rest of each reportThe quoted move before the split, the drift from the open to three sessions after, the 10:00 as-sold and 30-day crushes, the skew before and after, and the cover mark, for each of RF’s 15 reports.
- What selling it keptWhat selling RF’s straddle the day before kept when it was bought back at the open, at 10:00 and at the close: the average, the median, the worst report and the losses, over its last 12 reports.
- After the openWhether RF kept moving after the open or faded back by 10:00, and what the stored numbers say about the wings and the calendar: the typical distance to a wing, the slope at entry and the front-leg crush that followed.
We publish flagged reports instead of dropping them. A marker on one report says little about the company and one on most of them says a lot, so the count is what tells them apart.
Every marker on this name, counted against the report it touched, newest first as in the history above. The first column is the current reading.
’26Jul 17
’26Apr 17
’26Jan 16
’26Oct 17
’25Jul 18
’25Apr 17
’25Jan 17
’25Oct 18
’24Jul 19
’24Apr 19
’24Jan 19
’24Oct 20
’23Jul 21
’23Apr 21
’23reports
What each marker means14 markers
held to expiry The straddle that was sold expired at one of these closes, so its price there is its settlement value: the distance from the stock to the strike. That exit pays no bid/ask spread, and it ignores the cost of being assigned stock on the in-the-money leg.Affects Short-straddle P&L
crush expiry substituted The expiry that would have been measured was not available on both sides of the print, so a neighbouring one stood in. The crush is real; it is measured on a slightly different contract than the label implies.Affects Crush (re-struck)
macro event in the window A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.Affects Implied (event)
next-morning price from quotes The option at the 10:00 strike did not trade on both sides between 09:55 and 10:05, so the next-morning volatility was read from the midpoint of its quoted bid and ask over the same ten minutes. Used only when both sides were quoted and the quote was less than 50% wide.Affects Crush at 10:00
thin trade at the cover Too few prints stand behind the 10:00 anchor for it to be a reliable price. The crush is shown and kept out of the rankings.Affects Crush at 10:00
30-day IV extrapolated No pair of listed expiries brackets 30 days, so the 30-day volatility was extrapolated more than a week past the nearest one rather than interpolated. A shorter reach is not flagged: it moves the number by well under one volatility point.Affects Crush (30-day) · IV rank
an anchor was refused At least one observation behind the 10:00 crush was rejected: a price below intrinsic, a crossed quote, or a solve that did not converge. The number here was measured from the anchors that did invert, and is scored normally.Affects Crush at 10:00
no prediction No predicted crush could be frozen for this print, so it has no entry in the scored accuracy record. Never filled in afterwards — a prediction written after the outcome is not one.Affects Predicted crush · Error
wide decomposition band The decomposed implied move has a wide confidence band on this row. The number is published and kept off the board’s sort, because a sort cannot express an error bar; where its rank is shown, it is marked ≈.Affects Implied (event)
derived numbers unreliable Quotes on this name were too wide — or a 25Δ wing was missing — for the derived numbers on this row to be trusted: implied move, decomposition, crush and skew. Shown, kept off the board’s sort, and marked ≈ where its rank is shown.Affects The derived columns
noisy IV rank This name’s quote width is large against its own 52-week volatility range, so the rank carries a read error worth noting. A true property of a quiet name, not a defect — the rank itself is computed normally.Affects IV rank
gapped past the wings The stock gapped far enough that the contract sold at T−1 is no longer near the money at the cover, so the as-sold crush there is partly a move along the smile rather than a collapse in volatility.Affects Crush at 10:00 (as sold)
iV rose through the print Implied volatility went up across the event rather than collapsing — rare but real, usually guidance withdrawn or a second catalyst introduced. Shown, and kept out of the scored accuracy record rather than corrected.Affects Accuracy record
wide straddle quote The T−1 straddle’s bid-ask spread was wide relative to its own price, so every number read off that quote inherits the width. Published on purpose — the friction is real — but kept off the board’s sort, and marked ≈ where its rank is shown.Affects Implied (naive) · Short-straddle P&L
How to read this page
- History table
- Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
- Coverage
- RF’s 15 reports.
- Priced move
- Read at 15:46 ET.
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