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CompaniesINTCIntelWatch

INTC earnings: an expected move of 9.1%, an actual move of 12.5%.Averages over its last twelve reports. Here are all 17 reports.

Every Intel earnings report since Oct 2022: the expected move the options priced the day before, how far the stock moved by the close and by 10:00 the next morning, and the IV crush afterwards, how far implied volatility fell. We read option prices from real quotes at 15:46 ET. Definitions on the methodology page.

Expected move9.1%the day before each of the last twelve reports
Actual move12.5%to the next close over the last twelve · 12.4% by 10:00
Past the price7of 12closes further than the options priced
On record17reportsevery report since Oct 2022
Median IV crush−37%over the last twelve reports · 15:46 ET
Next report—no date on the calendar yet

INTC · the Oct 29 ’26 report, split and ranked

The options price an earnings move as one number. We take out the drift the stock would have had anyway, then rank what is left, the report’s own part, against INTC’s earlier reports. Both were fixed at 15:46 ET the day before, and the history below does the same for every report.

1 · Split

The whole 8.0% is the report

quoted8.0%the report8.0%ordinarynone0%2%4%6%8%

The options expired the session after the report, so the quote has no ordinary days in it and there is nothing to take out. Our estimate of the report’s part, read from eight expiries, agrees within its range: 8.0%, between 7.8 and 8.2. On a longer expiry this step splits the quote in two.

§3 Splitting the move

2 · Rank

Higher than five of its last twelve

cheaprichOct 29 ’26 · 8.0%lowest of the thirteenhighest

We rank only the report’s part, and only against INTC’s own earlier reports, so a jumpy stock does not read rich for being jumpy. 8.0% is the 42nd percentile: neither rich nor cheap for INTC.

§5 Richness

3 · What happened

Moved 28.6%, past the 8.0%

priced ±8.0%close −28.6% · 10:00 −29.3%−40%0+40%

−28.6% by the next close, −29.3% by 10:00 the next morning. The rank compares the price with INTC’s past and does not forecast the move.

§1 Timing and samples

ReportOct 29 ’26Compared withtwelve earlier reportsRank42nd percentile · neutralHow the rank works 

INTC · what the last twelve reports show

The charts read oldest to newest, left to right.priced moveclosed inside itclosed past itfall in implied volatility
Inside or past

Inside its priced move after five of twelve

Jan ’24: priced 7.6%, moved −11.9%Apr ’24: priced 7.4%, moved −9.2%Aug ’24: priced 8.8%, moved −26.1%Oct ’24: priced 11.6%, moved +7.8%Jan ’25: priced 10.3%, moved −2.9%Apr ’25: priced 8.0%, moved −6.7%Jul ’25: priced 8.0%, moved −8.5%Oct ’25: priced 8.9%, moved +0.3%Jan ’26: priced 8.6%, moved −17.0%Apr ’26: priced 10.0%, moved +23.6%Jul ’26: priced 12.4%, moved −7.9%Oct ’26: priced 8.0%, moved −28.6%Jan ’24Oct ’26

Past it: Jan 2024 −11.9%, Apr 2024 −9.2%, Aug 2024 −26.1%, Jul 2025 −8.5%, Jan 2026 −17.0%, Apr 2026 +23.6% and Oct 2026 −28.6%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

The biggest

−28.6% after the Oct 2026 report

priced8.0%moved, to the next close28.6%Oct ’26

The options had priced 8.0%.

Columns C2C, Priced in the table below

Implied volatility

Fell after every one, by 12% to 57%

Jan ’24: −52%Apr ’24: −57%Aug ’24: −12%Oct ’24: −53%Jan ’25: −46%Apr ’25: −35%Jul ’25: −54%Oct ’25: −35%Jan ’26: −39%Apr ’26: −23%Jul ’26: −33%Oct ’26: −12%median −37%Jan ’24Oct ’26

Median fall 37%, at the strike nearest the price, day before to day after.

Columns Crush · ATM in the table below

The priced move

Held steady: 9.7% over the last four

Jan ’24: priced 7.6%Apr ’24: priced 7.4%Aug ’24: priced 8.8%Oct ’24: priced 11.6%Jan ’25: priced 10.3%Apr ’25: priced 8.0%Jul ’25: priced 8.0%Oct ’25: priced 8.9%Jan ’26: priced 8.6%Apr ’26: priced 10.0%Jul ’26: priced 12.4%Oct ’26: priced 8.0%8.8%9.7%eight beforelast four

From 8.8% over the eight before. The report’s own part of the move, with the ordinary drift taken out.

Columns Priced in the table below

Reportsthe last twelve, settledWrittenfrom the numbers on this pageHow each one is measured 

INTC · earnings history: expected move vs actual move, all 17

CSV ↓
Columns shown on a phone
Every INTC earnings report: expected move, actual move and IV crush
Report Report’s partPricedRank RealizedC2C By 10:00 Priced · realized · ±25% CrushATM As-sold Open ForecastPred. Error
Oct 29 ’26AMC ±8.0% 42 −28.6% −29.3% −12% — −11% −33% +20pt
Jul 23 ’26AMC ±12.4% rich100 −7.9% −3.9% −33% −34% −31% −33% +1pt
Apr 23 ’26AMC ±10.0% rich83 +23.6% +22.3% −23% −13% −14% −36% +14pt
Jan 22 ’26AMC ±8.6% 64 −17.0% −15.8% −39% −18% −30% −33% −7pt
Oct 23 ’25AMC ±8.9% 80 +0.3% +3.3% −35% −36% −31% −34% −2pt
Jul 24 ’25AMC ±8.0% 56 −8.5% −9.5% −54% −39% −46% −43% −11pt
Apr 24 ’25AMC ±8.0% 63 −6.7% −8.2% −35% −33% −27% −38% +3pt
Jan 30 ’25AMC ±10.3% — −2.9% −0.8% −46% −45% −47% −44% −2pt
Oct 31 ’24AMC ±11.6% — +7.8% +5.5% −53% −51% −40% −42% −11pt
Aug 1 ’24AMC ±8.8% — −26.1% −27.5% −12% — 0% −51% +40pt
Apr 25 ’24AMC ±7.4% — −9.2% −10.9% −57% −44% −47% −48% −9pt
Jan 25 ’24AMC ±7.6% — −11.9% −11.9% −52% −40% −47% −48% −4pt
Oct 26 ’23AMC ±6.2% — +9.3% +10.5% −39% −28% −33% −40% +1pt
Jul 27 ’23AMC ±7.4% — +6.6% +4.4% −53% −51% −44% −51% −1pt
Apr 27 ’23AMC ±7.7% — +4.0% +6.4% −56% −51% −48% −51% −5pt
Jan 26 ’23AMC ±7.0% — −6.4% — −46% −43% — −50% +4pt
Oct 27 ’22AMC ±10.4% — +10.7% — −49% −45% — −61% +13pt
All · 17 ±8.7% avg 7 ranked 11.0% avg abs 11.3% avg abs −46% median −40% median −33% median −43% median 8.7pt avg abs
What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns
Report’s part
The report’s share of what options priced at 15:46 ET the day before, taken from two or more expiries.
ColumnsPriced
Rank
Where the report’s part sits among INTC’s own earlier reports, up to twelve, from 0 to 100: 42 on Oct 29 ’26 means it was priced higher than 5 of the 12 before it. Rich and cheap mark the top and bottom of that range. It needs eight earlier reports with a 10:00 move, so the oldest rows have none.
ColumnsRank
Realized
C2C is the move to the next close; By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.
ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
Chart
The grey band is what the options priced, the dark mark where the stock closed, the bar where it stood at 10:00, on a ±25% scale.
ColumnsPriced · realized · ±25%
Crush
How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry, from 15:46 ET the day before to the day after: at the new strike ATM and at the old one As-sold. Open reads it from the option’s 10:00 quotes the next morning, and is blank where there was none.
ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
Forecast
Pred. is the crush we published the day before, graded on the public record. Error is what happened minus the forecast, in points of the crush.
ColumnsPred.Error
The stock closed past the priced move on 9 of 17 and was past it at 10:00 the next morning on 9 of 15. The 16 forecasts up to Jul 2026 were rebuilt from history rather than published the day before, and all are graded on the public record. A dash is a number we do not have, not a zero.
Reports17Open crush15 of 17Measured15:46 ET · day before → day afterEvery company’s full history is public 

how these numbers are measured

A day's price path that ends near where it started: a short graphite bracket for the move from close to close, beside a much taller oxblood one for how far it swung in betweento the closein between
Two ways to measure the move

Closing prices miss the open

If you hold through the report you meet the open, not the close. We publish both: the move from one close to the next, and where the stock stood at 10:00 the next morning.

INTC Jul 2026: −7.9% by the close, −3.9% at 10:00.

§1 Timing and samples

One beam enters a prism and two leave, one oxblood and one slatethe reportordinary
The report’s own share of it

Option prices cover more than the report

An expiry a week out also carries a week of ordinary movement. Comparing two expiries that both contain the report separates the two, and the report's share is the priced move.

INTC Oct 2026: 8.0% from the options → 8.0% for the report, 100% of that expiry's risk.

§3 Splitting the move

Five expiries on a line; an oxblood beam strikes only the first, while a faint bracket spans all fivethe one that movedwhat 30 days average
The collapse in volatility

We measure the expiry that moved

A 30-day average mixes the expiry holding the report with expiries it never reaches, so it reads shallower than what you held. We read the expiry that holds the report, the day before and the day after, at both strikes.

INTC Oct 2026: −12% new strike, −11% at 10:00 the next morning.

§4 The collapse, three ways

INTC · IV crush at the report’s expiry vs the 30-day average

One expiry contains the report. The 30-day figure is an average that also covers expiries the report never reaches. Every column below leans the same way, so the gap shows on each report, not only in the median.

Collapse at the report’s expiry−46%median, whole column
Seen by the 30-day number−28%median, the part it sees
Missed by the 30-day number18pton 17 of 17 reports
Oct 29 ’26Jul 23 ’26Apr 23 ’26Jan 22 ’26Oct 23 ’25Jul 24 ’25Apr 24 ’25Jan 30 ’25Oct 31 ’24Aug 1 ’24Apr 25 ’24Jan 25 ’24Oct 26 ’23Jul 27 ’23Apr 27 ’23Jan 26 ’23Oct 27 ’22

INTC · the expected move, where it closed, where it stood at 10:00

Each row is one report: the band is what the options priced, the mark is where the stock closed, and the bar runs to where it stood at 10:00 the next morning. On all 15 reports with both, the close and 10:00 pointed the same way.

Where the 10:00 number is missing, the cell stays blank instead of borrowing the close, and the data-quality grid below says why. How far apart the two run differs from company to company; this window measures it for INTC.

Median move to the next close8.5%past the price on 9 of 17
Median move by 10:00 the next morning9.5%past the price on 9 of 15
Oct 29 ’26−28.6−29.3
Jul 23 ’26−7.9−3.9
Apr 23 ’26+23.6+22.3
Jan 22 ’26−17.0−15.8
Oct 23 ’25+0.3+3.3
Jul 24 ’25−8.5−9.5
Apr 24 ’25−6.7−8.2
Jan 30 ’25−2.9−0.8
Oct 31 ’24+7.8+5.5
Aug 1 ’24−26.1−27.5
Apr 25 ’24−9.2−10.9
Jan 25 ’24−11.9−11.9
Oct 26 ’23+9.3+10.5
Jul 27 ’23+6.6+4.4
Apr 27 ’23+4.0+6.4
Jan 26 ’23−6.4—
Oct 27 ’22+10.7—
−25−12.50+12.5+25

INTC · the term structure the day before each report

The split reads the report out of the gap between the two lines. The small figure under each date is how many trading sessions the expiry holding the report had left. A shorter one carries the same report over fewer days, so it reads higher without the report being priced any bigger.

Drawn for the last twelve reports, like the other figures on this page. It is history; the current curve is on the board.

the expiry holding the reportthe next expirythe gap the split readsimplied vol, %

INTC · data quality, report by report

Counted over the 17 reports shown. Three markers are on every report (held to expiry, crush expiry substituted and macro event in the window), so they describe INTC rather than any one quarter. The other eight are on between one and ten reports.

Every marker on the reports above is counted here, one cell per report, newest first as in the history table.

Oct 29
’26Jul 23
’26Apr 23
’26Jan 22
’26Oct 23
’25Jul 24
’25Apr 24
’25Jan 30
’25Oct 31
’24Aug 1
’24Apr 25
’24Jan 25
’24Oct 26
’23Jul 27
’23Apr 27
’23Jan 26
’23Oct 27
’22reports
WithheldThe cell is blank on the marked reports.
no trade at the cover2 of 17
no 10:00 tape2 of 17
solver did not converge1 of 17
Shown, kept off the board’s sortPublished, but it does not rank this name on the board.
thin trade at the cover3 of 17
Shown as measuredNotes on how a number was measured. Each says what it touches.
held to expiry17 of 17
crush expiry substituted17 of 17
macro event in the window17 of 17
gapped past the wings10 of 17
an anchor was refused7 of 17
skew contamination2 of 17
no re-struck cover IV2 of 17
What each marker means11 markers · 3 withhold a number

Withheld

no trade at the cover2 of 17open_crush_no_trade
The option legs did not trade at the 10:00 cover anchor, so the crush there could not be measured. It comes from the tape, not an outage, so it is permanent and counts in the published coverage ratio.
Lands inOpen
no 10:00 tape2 of 17rm_intra_unavailable
The equity minute bars behind the 10:00 anchor do not exist for this session, so the anchor is blank and stays blank. It is never substituted from the opening price: a history with two different anchors mixed together is worse than a shorter one.
Lands inBy 10:00Open
solver did not converge1 of 17open_crush_solver_failed
Inverting the observed cover price back into an implied volatility did not converge, so the 10:00 crush is withheld for this row.
Lands inOpen

Shown, kept off the board’s sort

thin trade at the cover3 of 17open_crush_thin_trade
Too few prints stand behind the 10:00 anchor for it to be a reliable price. The crush is shown and kept out of the rankings.
Lands inOpen

Shown as measured

held to expiryevery reportcover_mark_settled
The straddle that was sold expired at one of these closes, so its price there is its settlement value: the distance from the stock to the strike. That exit pays no bid/ask spread, and it ignores the cost of being assigned stock on the in-the-money leg.
Lands inShort-straddle P&Lon the ticker page, not this one
crush expiry substitutedevery reportcrush_expiry_substituted
The expiry that would have been measured was not available on both sides of the print, so a neighbouring one stood in. The crush is real; it is measured on a slightly different contract than the label implies.
Lands inATM
macro event in the windowevery reportdecomp_macro_window
A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.
Lands inPriced move
gapped past the wings10 of 17open_crush_gap_otm
The stock gapped far enough that the contract sold at T−1 is no longer near the money at the cover, so the as-sold crush there is partly a move along the smile rather than a collapse in volatility.
Lands inOpen
an anchor was refused7 of 17open_crush_anchor_unreliable
At least one observation behind the 10:00 crush was rejected: a price below intrinsic, a crossed quote, or a solve that did not converge. The number here was measured from the anchors that did invert, and is scored normally.
Lands inOpen
skew contamination2 of 17crush_skew_contaminated
The gap between the strike sold and where the stock ended up is large enough that the as-sold crush cannot stand in for the comparable one, so this print carries no scored open crush.
Lands inAccuracy recordon the public record, not this one
no re-struck cover IV2 of 17open_crush_restruck_unavailable
The comparable at-the-money volatility could not be read at the 10:00 anchor, so only the as-sold contract is available there.
Lands inOpen

INTC · companies whose reports traded alike

Each company’s last twelve reports.average priced movemoved less than pricedmoved moremedian fall in implied volatilityINTC’s values

Six companies whose reports traded like INTC’s

The closest on all three numbers at the top of each company page. It compares how the reports traded, not the businesses.

7%8%10%10%12%12%15%AAPACMRAEOAFRMAKAMAMKRANFAPPNARDXARMATIAURAVAVAVGOAXONBAXBBBBWIBOOTBROSBURLCALYCARCARGCAVACCCECELHCHRWCHTRCHWYCIENCIFRCLFCLSCLSKCNXCCOHRCOINCOOCRCLCRLCROXCWHCXMDDOGDECKDELLDLTRDOCUDXCMELELFENPHERICETSYEXPEFISVFLRFNFOURFRPTFTAIFTNTFVRRGAPGCTGEOGHGIIIGLBEGLOBGLXYGMEGOOSGRMNGTGWREHOODHUBSHUTIDXXILMNINSPIONQIRENITJBLUKDLEULINCLITELNTHLRNLSCCLULULZBMEDMELIMETAMLKNMRVLMUNBISNCLHNETNICENKENOWNTAPNTNXNTRANXTOKLOOKTAONONORCLOSCRPPAYCPDPDDPENPGNYPLABPLNTPLTRPODDPRGSPVHQUBTRBLXRDWRHRIVNRKLBRMBSRNGROKURPDRUMRUNRVLVSESFMSHAKSHOPSIGSMRSNDKSNOWSOFISPOTSTNESWBITALTDOCTEAMTERTEVATGTTHCTITNTMETOSTTPRTRIPTSEMTSLATTDTWLOUAAULTAUNFIURBNUSARVFCVGVKTXVRTVSXYWWCCWHRWINGWIXWRBYWULFWWWXYZZZBRAZGZSZUMZUTIINTCEPAMYOULWSTRADVAaverage priced move →average move made →all 728
Where they sit. A close-up of INTC’s part of the field; the small map in its corner shows where that sits among all 728 companies with a page and all three numbers. Grey dots are other companies here. Below the dashed line, a stock moved less than its options priced.
Figureseach company’s last twelve reportsCompared onpriced, moved, crush

INTC · in the articles

the board · the last fortnight, then the next 14 days

PricedRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
  1. Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
  2. 1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
  3. 2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
  4. 3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
  5. 4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
  6. 5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
  7. Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
  8. ·AAONMon 9AMC—
  9. ·ABCLMon 9AMC—
  10. ·ACHRMon 9AMC—
  11. ·AIOTMon 9BMO—
  12. 11 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

    The ranked columns are the board

    Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
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    Open the board

    A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

    Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

  13. ·ALTGMon 9AMC—
  14. ·AMCXMon 9AMC—
  15. ·AMGMon 9BMO—
  16. ·AMPYMon 9AMC—
  17. ·AMRCMon 9AMC—
  18. ·ANNXMon 9BMO—
  19. ·APEIMon 9AMC—
The board: the last fortnight’s settled reports, then the next 14 days
#NameReportPriced moveRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·AAONMon 9AMC—
·ABCLMon 9AMC—
·ACHRMon 9AMC—
·AIOTMon 9BMO—
12 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

The ranked columns are the board

Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
Open the board

A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

·ALTGMon 9AMC—
·AMCXMon 9AMC—
·AMGMon 9BMO—
·AMPYMon 9AMC—
·AMRCMon 9AMC—
·ANNXMon 9BMO—
·APEIMon 9AMC—
·APPSMon 9AMC—
on the board — not known yet Ranked by richness against each name's own last twelve reports. Ratio is the priced move over that name’s typical actual move; inside: the stock stayed within the priced move.

How to read this page

History table
Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
Coverage
INTC’s 17 reports. The board rows are the fortnight’s five richest settled reports, then the first of the next 523 names.
Ratio
The priced move over the name’s typical actual move.
Markers
Notes on a report’s data, counted in the data-quality grid with what each one touches.

A number looks wrong? Tell us what you expected and we’ll check it.Report a data issue

History is a record, not a forecast. Derived values only; no option prices are shown. Nothing here is investment advice.