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CompaniesPONYPony AIWatch

PONY earnings: an expected move of 10.2%, an actual move of 6.2%.Averages over its last six reports. Here they are.

Every Pony AI earnings report since May 2025: the expected move the options priced the day before, how far the stock moved by the close and by 10:00 the next morning, and the IV crush afterwards, how far implied volatility fell. We read option prices from real quotes at 15:46 ET. Definitions on the methodology page.

Next reportWed 18Nov · BMO10 days out
Expected move10.2%the day before each of the last six reports
Actual move6.2%to the next close over the last six · 7.7% by 10:00
Past the price1of 6closes further than the options priced
On record6reportsevery report since May 2025
Median IV crush−23%over the last six reports · 15:46 ET

Next report · before the open · 10 days out

PONY’s expected move for Wed 18 Nov

Priced now%

The options already price it. The number, and how rich it is against PONY’s own history, opens free on report day, Wed 18 Nov, with an account. Subscribers read it now.

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PONY · earnings history: expected move vs actual move, all 6

CSV ↓
Columns shown on a phone
Every PONY earnings report: expected move, actual move and IV crush
Report Report’s partPricedRank RealizedC2C By 10:00 Priced · realized · ±20% CrushATM As-sold Open ForecastPred. Error
Aug 18 ’26BMO ±10.2% — −3.0% −5.1% −22% −24% −17% −25% +3pt
May 26 ’26BMO ±9.8% — +4.7% +4.1% 3% 2% 1% — —
Mar 26 ’26BMO ±10.0% — −14.7% −14.1% −28% −17% −26% −30% +3pt
Nov 25 ’25BMO ±9.4% — +5.9% +6.7% −37% −36% — −21% −16pt
Aug 12 ’25BMO ±7.3% — −3.5% −10.3% −24% −19% −18% −15% −9pt
May 20 ’25BMO ±14.4% — +5.7% +6.0% −1% −1% −1% −22% +21pt
All · 6 ±10.2% avg 0 ranked 6.2% avg abs 7.7% avg abs −23% median −18% median −17% median −22% median 10.4pt avg abs
What the columns mean6 groups · 10 columns
Report’s part
The report’s share of what options priced at 15:46 ET the day before, taken from two or more expiries.
ColumnsPriced
Rank
Where the report’s part sits among PONY’s own earlier reports, up to twelve, from 0 to 100. Rich and cheap mark the top and bottom of that range. It needs eight earlier reports with a 10:00 move, so the oldest rows have none.
ColumnsRank
Realized
C2C is the move to the next close; By 10:00, the move to 10:00 the next morning.
ColumnsC2CBy 10:00
Chart
The grey band is what the options priced, the dark mark where the stock closed, the bar where it stood at 10:00, on a ±20% scale.
ColumnsPriced · realized · ±20%
Crush
How far implied volatility fell in the report’s expiry, from 15:46 ET the day before to the day after: at the new strike ATM and at the old one As-sold. Open reads it from the option’s 10:00 quotes the next morning, and is blank where there was none.
ColumnsATMAs-soldOpen
Forecast
Pred. is the crush we published the day before. PONY is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. Error is what happened minus the forecast, in points of the crush.
ColumnsPred.Error
The stock closed past the priced move on 1 of 6 and was past it at 10:00 the next morning on 2 of 6. The 4 forecasts up to Mar 2026 were rebuilt from history rather than published the day before, and all are graded here. PONY is not in the public record, which covers only companies liquid enough for the split to be trusted. A dash is a number we do not have, not a zero.
Reports6Open crush5 of 6Measured15:46 ET · day before → day afterEvery company’s full history is public 

how these numbers are measured

A day's price path that ends near where it started: a short graphite bracket for the move from close to close, beside a much taller oxblood one for how far it swung in betweento the closein between
Two ways to measure the move

Closing prices miss the open

If you hold through the report you meet the open, not the close. We publish both: the move from one close to the next, and where the stock stood at 10:00 the next morning.

PONY Aug 2025: −3.5% by the close, −10.3% at 10:00.

§1 Timing and samples

One beam enters a prism and two leave, one oxblood and one slatethe reportordinary
The report’s own share of it

Option prices cover more than the report

An expiry a week out also carries a week of ordinary movement. Comparing two expiries that both contain the report separates the two, and the report's share is the priced move.

PONY Aug 2026: 11.9% from the options → 10.2% for the report, 73% of that expiry's risk.

§3 Splitting the move

Five expiries on a line; an oxblood beam strikes only the first, while a faint bracket spans all fivethe one that movedwhat 30 days average
The collapse in volatility

We measure the expiry that moved

A 30-day average mixes the expiry holding the report with expiries it never reaches, so it reads shallower than what you held. We read the expiry that holds the report, the day before and the day after, at both strikes.

PONY Aug 2026: −22% new strike, −24% old strike, −17% at 10:00 the next morning.

§4 The collapse, three ways

PONY · IV crush at the report’s expiry vs the 30-day average

One expiry contains the report. The 30-day figure is an average that also covers expiries the report never reaches. Every column below leans the same way, so the gap shows on each report, not only in the median.

Collapse at the report’s expiry−23%median, whole column
Seen by the 30-day number−12%median, the part it sees
Missed by the 30-day number11pton 4 of 6 reports
Aug 18 ’26May 26 ’26Mar 26 ’26Nov 25 ’25Aug 12 ’25May 20 ’25

PONY · the expected move, where it closed, where it stood at 10:00

Each row is one report: the band is what the options priced, the mark is where the stock closed, and the bar runs to where it stood at 10:00 the next morning. On all 6 reports with both, the close and 10:00 pointed the same way.

Where the 10:00 number is missing, the cell stays blank instead of borrowing the close, and the data-quality grid below says why. How far apart the two run differs from company to company; this window measures it for PONY.

Median move to the next close5.2%past the price on 1 of 6
Median move by 10:00 the next morning6.3%past the price on 2 of 6
Aug 18 ’26−3.0−5.1
May 26 ’26+4.7+4.1
Mar 26 ’26−14.7−14.1
Nov 25 ’25+5.9+6.7
Aug 12 ’25−3.5−10.3
May 20 ’25+5.7+6.0
−20−100+10+20

PONY · the term structure the day before each report

The split reads the report out of the gap between the two lines. The small figure under each date is how many trading sessions the expiry holding the report had left. A shorter one carries the same report over fewer days, so it reads higher without the report being priced any bigger.

Drawn for the last twelve reports, like the other figures on this page. It is history; the current curve is on the board.

the expiry holding the reportthe next expirythe gap the split readsimplied vol, %

PONY · data quality, report by report

Counted over the 6 reports shown. Two markers are on every report (crush expiry substituted and macro event in the window), so they describe PONY rather than any one quarter. The other nine are on between one and two reports.

Every marker on the reports above is counted here, one cell per report, newest first as in the history table.

Aug 18
’26May 26
’26Mar 26
’26Nov 25
’25Aug 12
’25May 20
’25reports
WithheldThe cell is blank on the marked reports.
no prediction1 of 6
no trade at the cover1 of 6
Shown, kept off the board’s sortPublished, but it does not rank this name on the board.
wide decomposition band1 of 6
thin trade at the cover1 of 6
Shown as measuredNotes on how a number was measured. Each says what it touches.
crush expiry substituted6 of 6
macro event in the window6 of 6
held to expiry2 of 6
noisy IV rank2 of 6
skew contamination1 of 6
next-morning price from quotes1 of 6
no re-struck cover IV1 of 6
What each marker means11 markers · 2 withhold a number

Withheld

no prediction1 of 6crush_pred_unavailable
No predicted crush could be frozen for this print, so it has no entry in the scored accuracy record. Never filled in afterwards — a prediction written after the outcome is not one.
Lands inPred.Error
no trade at the cover1 of 6open_crush_no_trade
The option legs did not trade at the 10:00 cover anchor, so the crush there could not be measured. It comes from the tape, not an outage, so it is permanent and counts in the published coverage ratio.
Lands inOpen

Shown, kept off the board’s sort

wide decomposition band1 of 6decomp_low_confidence
The decomposed implied move has a wide confidence band on this row. The number is published and kept off the board’s sort, because a sort cannot express an error bar; where its rank is shown, it is marked ≈.
Lands inPriced move
thin trade at the cover1 of 6open_crush_thin_trade
Too few prints stand behind the 10:00 anchor for it to be a reliable price. The crush is shown and kept out of the rankings.
Lands inOpen

Shown as measured

crush expiry substitutedevery reportcrush_expiry_substituted
The expiry that would have been measured was not available on both sides of the print, so a neighbouring one stood in. The crush is real; it is measured on a slightly different contract than the label implies.
Lands inATM
macro event in the windowevery reportdecomp_macro_window
A scheduled macro event (a CPI print, an FOMC day) falls inside the decomposition window, so a little of the volatility attributed to the event belongs to the calendar instead.
Lands inPriced move
held to expiry2 of 6cover_mark_settled
The straddle that was sold expired at one of these closes, so its price there is its settlement value: the distance from the stock to the strike. That exit pays no bid/ask spread, and it ignores the cost of being assigned stock on the in-the-money leg.
Lands inShort-straddle P&Lon the ticker page, not this one
noisy IV rank2 of 6iv_rank_noisy
This name’s quote width is large against its own 52-week volatility range, so the rank carries a read error worth noting. A true property of a quiet name, not a defect — the rank itself is computed normally.
Lands inIV rankon the ticker page, not this one
skew contamination1 of 6crush_skew_contaminated
The gap between the strike sold and where the stock ended up is large enough that the as-sold crush cannot stand in for the comparable one, so this print carries no scored open crush.
Lands inAccuracy recordon the public record, which does not include this company
next-morning price from quotes1 of 6open_crush_restruck_quoted
The option at the 10:00 strike did not trade on both sides between 09:55 and 10:05, so the next-morning volatility was read from the midpoint of its quoted bid and ask over the same ten minutes. Used only when both sides were quoted and the quote was less than 50% wide.
Lands inOpen
no re-struck cover IV1 of 6open_crush_restruck_unavailable
The comparable at-the-money volatility could not be read at the 10:00 anchor, so only the as-sold contract is available there.
Lands inOpen

PONY · companies whose reports traded alike

Each company’s last twelve reports.average priced movemoved less than pricedmoved moremedian fall in implied volatilityPONY’s values

Six companies whose reports traded like PONY’s

The closest on all three numbers at the top of each company page. It compares how the reports traded, not the businesses.

5%6%7%8%10%12%ABNBALGNASOBILIBIRKBOXBULLCARTCMGCPNGCRUSCRWDCSGPCSTMDASHDBXDKNGDKSDTDXCENTGFIVEFSLRGBXGFSGNRCGRABHOGHPEJACKJBLKEYSKMXKTOSLEVILIMMARAMBLYMPTMRNANFLXONPANWPENNPYPLRKTRMDSMGSNSONOTHOTREXWDAYWDCWDFCXPEVXPOYELPZMJOBYTEMCORZALGMCSIQPONYAMCaverage priced move →average move made →all 728
Where they sit. A close-up of PONY’s part of the field; the small map in its corner shows where that sits among all 728 companies with a page and all three numbers. Grey dots are other companies here. Below the dashed line, a stock moved less than its options priced.
Figureseach company’s last twelve reportsCompared onpriced, moved, crush

the board · the last fortnight, then the next 14 days

PricedRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
  1. Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
  2. 1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
  3. 2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
  4. 3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
  5. 4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
  6. 5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
  7. Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
  8. ·AAONMon 9AMC—
  9. ·ABCLMon 9AMC—
  10. ·ACHRMon 9AMC—
  11. ·AIOTMon 9BMO—
  12. 11 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

    The ranked columns are the board

    Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
    $29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
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    A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

    Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

  13. ·ALTGMon 9AMC—
  14. ·AMCXMon 9AMC—
  15. ·AMGMon 9BMO—
  16. ·AMPYMon 9AMC—
  17. ·AMRCMon 9AMC—
  18. ·ANNXMon 9BMO—
  19. ·APEIMon 9AMC—
The board: the last fortnight’s settled reports, then the next 14 days
#NameReportPriced moveRichness · own historyRatioOutcome
Reported · the fortnight to 5 Nov · settled, free
1COPConocoPhillipsNov 5BMO3.4%1001.79inside
2EOGEOG ResourcesNov 5AMC4.2%1001.58inside
3GEOGeo GroupNov 5BMO9.8%1001.31inside
4GHGuardant HealthNov 5AMC19.1%1002.10inside
5KTOSKratos Defense & Security SolutionsNov 5AMC11.9%1001.59inside
Next 14 days · 523 names · symbol and date free
·AAONMon 9AMC—
·ABCLMon 9AMC—
·ACHRMon 9AMC—
·AIOTMon 9BMO—
12 of 523 shown · the next 14 days

The ranked columns are the board

Symbol and date are free for all 523 names. A subscription fills in the three columns held back on every locked row: the priced move, its richness against that name's own last twelve reports, and the ratio between them.

$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
$29/mo or $290/yr Get the board two months free on the year
Open the board

A free account adds today’s board rows and the full 14-day calendar, without these three columns.

Today's board rows and the full forward calendar are on your board.

·ALTGMon 9AMC—
·AMCXMon 9AMC—
·AMGMon 9BMO—
·AMPYMon 9AMC—
·AMRCMon 9AMC—
·ANNXMon 9BMO—
·APEIMon 9AMC—
·APPSMon 9AMC—
on the board — not known yet Ranked by richness against each name's own last twelve reports. Ratio is the priced move over that name’s typical actual move; inside: the stock stayed within the priced move.

How to read this page

History table
Its columns are explained right under it: What the columns mean ↑
Coverage
PONY’s 6 reports. The board rows are the fortnight’s five richest settled reports, then the first of the next 523 names.
Ratio
The priced move over the name’s typical actual move.
Markers
Notes on a report’s data, counted in the data-quality grid with what each one touches.

A number looks wrong? Tell us what you expected and we’ll check it.Report a data issue

History is a record, not a forecast. Derived values only; no option prices are shown. Nothing here is investment advice.